Radbouchoom Sirilak, Delos Angeles Marjorie D, Ngarega Boniface K, Phutthai Thamarat, Schneider Harald
Center for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, Yunnan, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2025 May 1;16:1496040. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1496040. eCollection 2025.
Tropical karst habitats host a rich plant diversity, of which many species are edaphic specialists with narrow distribution ranges. Many of these plants are expected to be highly vulnerable to global climate change as a consequence of the substantial fragmentation of karst formations in combination with edaphic preferences and dispersal limitations. In recent years, the application of species distribution models to predict range under future climate scenarios has increasingly become a popular tool to guide conservation management approaches. Here, we examined the impact of climate change on the genus in Thailand using an ensemble modelling approach. The models incorporated climatic data and the geological characteristics of karst formations to reliably predict the distribution of species that reside within karst habitats. Our results revealed that the diversity of species in karst environments is primarily influenced by key climatic factors, including the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitation, along with geographical features such as karst formations. Together, these elements significantly shape the distribution patterns of diversity in these unique habitats. Under current climatic conditions, clusters of suitable habitats for were found in Northern, South-Western, and Southern Thailand. The employed scenarios for future warmer climates converged to predict a substantial loss of currently suitable habitats. Applying the moderate SSP245 scenario, the model predicted range losses of 32.46% in 2050 that accumulate to 38.55% in 2070. Notably, more worrying predictions were obtained by applying the worst-case (SSP585) scenario, which projected a range loss of 37.73% in 2050 and increasing to 62.81% in 2070. In turn, the gain by areas becoming suitable was much lower than the loss. These results are highly consistent with the predicted high vulnerability of karst plants to global climatic change. Conservation efforts require taking into account these predictions by focusing on two key actions. Firstly, protecting areas where occurrences of are predicted to be less affected by climate change. The assignment of these areas to national parks thus far has not been achieved yet. Secondly, establishing practical conservation strategies for species occurring preliminary or even exclusively in karst landscapes.
热带岩溶栖息地拥有丰富的植物多样性，其中许多物种是具有狭窄分布范围的土壤专家。由于岩溶地貌的大量破碎化，加上土壤偏好和扩散限制，这些植物中的许多预计极易受到全球气候变化的影响。近年来，应用物种分布模型来预测未来气候情景下的分布范围，越来越成为指导保护管理方法的流行工具。在这里，我们使用集合建模方法研究了气候变化对泰国某属植物的影响。这些模型纳入了气候数据和岩溶地貌的地质特征，以可靠地预测岩溶栖息地内物种的分布。我们的结果表明，岩溶环境中该属物种的多样性主要受关键气候因素影响，包括最湿润季度的平均温度和年降水量，以及岩溶地貌等地理特征。这些因素共同显著塑造了这些独特栖息地中该属多样性的分布模式。在当前气候条件下，泰国北部、西南部和南部发现了该属植物的适宜栖息地集群。未来气候变暖的模拟情景预测，目前适宜的栖息地将大幅减少。应用中等排放情景路径SSP245，该模型预测到2050年分布范围损失32.46%，到2070年累计达到38.55%。值得注意的是，应用最坏情况（SSP585）情景路径得到了更令人担忧的预测结果，预计到2050年分布范围损失37.73%，到2070年增至62.81%。相反，适宜区域增加所带来的增益远低于损失。这些结果与岩溶植物对全球气候变化高度脆弱的预测高度一致。保护工作需要考虑到这些预测，重点采取两项关键行动。首先，保护预计该属植物出现受气候变化影响较小的区域。到目前为止，这些区域尚未被指定为国家公园。其次，为主要或仅在岩溶景观中出现的该属物种制定切实可行的保护策略。
