使用机器学习和多变量统计方法开发及验证新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)入院预测模型
Development and Validation of Prediction Model for Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) Admission Using Machine Learning and Multivariate Statistical Approach.
作者信息
Panda Nihar Ranjan, Mahanta Kamal Lochan, Pati Jitendra Kumar, Pati Tapasi
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, CV Raman Global University, Bhubaneswar, India.
KIIT International School, KIIT University, Bhubaneswar, India.
出版信息
J Obstet Gynaecol India. 2025 Apr;75(Suppl 1):383-391. doi: 10.1007/s13224-024-02009-0. Epub 2024 Jul 3.
BACKGROUND
The work aims to provide a method for assessing newborn infants' risk to determine whether they need to be admitted to the NICU before birth. Term neonates who were admitted to the NICU are known to have health problems, a greater mortality risk, and higher healthcare costs. Researchers want to develop an algorithm that estimates the risk of NICU admission for this particular subset of newborns using an integrated statistical approach. This risk assessment might lower the morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenses related to NICU hospitalizations by assisting in the early identification of possible instances.
METHOD
The data was collected from a multispecialty hospital using hospital-based records from the obstetrics and gynecology department. All the clinical and demographic parameters are described as per requirement. A multivariate statistical analysis was done to identify potential risk factors for NICU admission. Four classification models were used to predict NICU admission. All the models were evaluated based on their performance matrices.
RESULTS
In multivariate analysis, we found Preterm deliveries ( = 1.003 Aor = 2.727 95% CI = 1.54,4.80 < 0.001), Hypertension ( = - 1.419 Aor = 0.242 95% CI = 0.112,0.523 < 0.001), AFI ( = 1.262 Aor = 3.53 95% CI = 1.06,11.69 = 0.039), Birth weight (< 2.5 kg) ( = 1.011 Aor = 2.75 95% CI = 1.57,4.81 < 0.001), Mode of Delivery(LSCS)( = 1.196 Aor = 3.307 95% CI = 1.95,5.60 < 0.001) and maternal complication ( = 6.962 OR = 7.69 95% CI = 5.67,13.69 < 0.001) are the potential risk factors for NICU admission. The decision tree performed the highest accuracy (0.921) and AUC (0.966) as compared to other models to predict NICU admission.
CONCLUSION
Using an explainable feature learning technique to predict NICU admissions contributes to better global health data utilization and a more hopeful future in healthcare.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13224-024-02009-0.
背景
这项工作旨在提供一种评估新生儿风险的方法,以确定他们在出生前是否需要入住新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)。已知入住NICU的足月儿存在健康问题、更高的死亡风险和更高的医疗费用。研究人员希望开发一种算法,使用综合统计方法估计这一特定新生儿亚组入住NICU的风险。这种风险评估可能通过协助早期识别可能的情况来降低与NICU住院相关的发病率、死亡率和医疗费用。
方法
数据从一家多专科医院收集,使用妇产科的医院记录。所有临床和人口统计学参数均按要求进行描述。进行多变量统计分析以确定入住NICU的潜在风险因素。使用四种分类模型预测NICU入住情况。所有模型均根据其性能矩阵进行评估。
结果
在多变量分析中,我们发现早产(β = 1.003,调整后比值比[AOR] = 2.727,95%置信区间[CI] = 1.54,4.80,P < 0.001)、高血压(β = -1.419,AOR = 0.242,95% CI = 0.112,0.523,P < 0.001)、羊水指数(AFI)(β = 1.262,AOR = 3.53,95% CI = 1.06,11.69,P = 0.039)、出生体重(<2.5 kg)(β = 1.011,AOR = 2.75,95% CI = 1.57,4.81,P < 0.001)、分娩方式(剖宫产)(β = 1.196,AOR = 3.307,95% CI = 1.95,5.60,P < 0.001)和母亲并发症(β = 6.962,比值比[OR] = 7.69,95% CI = 5.67,13.69,P < 0.001)是入住NICU的潜在风险因素。与其他预测NICU入住情况的模型相比,决策树的准确率最高(0.921),曲线下面积(AUC)最大(0.966)。
结论
使用可解释的特征学习技术预测NICU入住情况有助于更好地利用全球健康数据,并为医疗保健带来更有希望的未来。
补充信息
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s13224-024-02009-0获取的补充材料。