de Souza Carlos Dornels Freire, de Souza Nascimento Rafael Pedro, de Brito Rodrigo José Videres Cordeiro, Bezerra-Santos Márcio, Dos Santos Allan Dantas, da Costa Armstrong Anderson, Gomes Orlando Vieira, do Carmo Rodrigo Feliciano
College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), Av José de Sá Maniçoba, Sn, Maria Auxiliadora, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Brazil.
Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil.
BMC Infect Dis. 2025 May 21;25(1):729. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-10767-z.
Schistosomiasis is a communicable disease of neglected populations. The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal trend and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis mortality in an endemic area of Brazil.
This is a study involving all deaths from schistosomiasis in residents of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2008 to 2021. The data were extracted from the Mortality Information System. The study was done in three steps: description of the sociodemographic profile before (2008-2019) and during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021); time series analysis, using joinpoint regression; and spatial dynamics of schistosomiasis before (2015-2019) and during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020 and 2021), using Moran statistics.
The majority of deaths occurred in females (53.4%; n = 1222), aged 60 years or older (74.5%; n = 1704), and of brown race (61.18%; n = 1398). Time series analysis showed linear declining trends in the state rate (APC -1.96%; 95% CI -3.65 to -0.25; p = 0.028) and in the regions of Palmares (APC -4.73%; 95% CI -7.45 to -1.93; p = 0.003) and Caruaru (APC -4.05%; 95% CI -7.95 to -0.54; p = 0.025). In the other regions, the time trend was stationary. Moran's spatial statistics showed a heterogeneous spatial distribution in all study years. The number of municipalities in quadrant 1 (high-high) of the Moran diagram varied between 31 in 2016 and 10 in 2020.
The study showed a decreasing mortality trend, heterogeneous spatial distribution, and no apparent impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on schistosomiasis mortality in Pernambuco, Brazil.
血吸虫病是一种在弱势群体中传播的疾病。本研究的目的是分析巴西一个流行地区血吸虫病死亡率的时间趋势和空间分布。
本研究涉及2008年至2021年巴西伯南布哥州居民中所有因血吸虫病死亡的病例。数据从死亡信息系统中提取。该研究分三个步骤进行：描述2008 - 2019年新冠疫情之前和2020 - 2021年新冠疫情期间的社会人口学特征；使用连接点回归进行时间序列分析；使用莫兰统计分析2015 - 2019年新冠疫情之前和2020年及2021年新冠疫情期间血吸虫病的空间动态。
大多数死亡发生在女性（53.4%；n = 1222）、60岁及以上人群（74.5%；n = 1704）以及棕色人种（61.18%；n = 1398）中。时间序列分析显示该州死亡率呈线性下降趋势（年度百分比变化 -1.96%；95%置信区间 -3.65至 -0.25；p = 0.028），帕尔马雷斯地区（年度百分比变化 -4.73%；95%置信区间 -7.45至 -1.93；p = 0.003）和卡鲁阿鲁地区（年度百分比变化 -4.05%；95%置信区间 -7.95至 -0.54；p = 0.025）也是如此。在其他地区，时间趋势保持平稳。莫兰空间统计显示在所有研究年份中空间分布不均。莫兰图第一象限（高高）中的城市数量在2016年为31个，在2020年为10个。
该研究显示巴西伯南布哥州血吸虫病死亡率呈下降趋势，空间分布不均，且新冠疫情对血吸虫病死亡率无明显影响。
