Batista Catia, Han Daniel, Haushofer Johannes, Khanna Gaurav, McKenzie David, Mobarak Ahmed Mushfiq, Theoharides Caroline, Yang Dean
Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon, Portugal.
Department of Economics, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
Science. 2025 May 22;388(6749):eadr8861. doi: 10.1126/science.adr8861.
How does emigration of highly educated citizens of low-income countries to high-income countries affect the economies of the origin countries? The direct effect is "brain drain"-a decrease in the country's human capital stock. However, there may also be indirect "brain gain" effects. This review summarizes evidence that uses causal inference methods to reveal mechanisms that may lead to brain drain, gain, or circulation. Collectively, the weight of the evidence suggests that migration opportunities often increase human capital stock in origin countries and produce downstream beneficial effects through remittances; foreign direct investment and trade linkages; transfers of knowledge, technology and norms; and return migration. We discuss conditions under which benefits from skilled migration may outweigh costs and also describe potential research paths to inform policy.
低收入国家的高学历公民移民到高收入国家会如何影响原籍国的经济?直接影响是“人才外流”,即国家人力资本存量的减少。然而,也可能存在间接的“人才流入”效应。本综述总结了运用因果推断方法来揭示可能导致人才外流、流入或循环机制的证据。总体而言,证据表明移民机会往往会增加原籍国的人力资本存量,并通过汇款、外国直接投资和贸易联系、知识、技术和规范的转移以及回迁移民产生下游有益影响。我们讨论了技术移民的收益可能超过成本的条件,并描述了为政策提供信息的潜在研究路径。