Ji Tingting, Stankov Ivana, Egan Niles Sherman, Lich Kristen Hassmiller, Thornton Rachel L J, Wang Qi, Igusa Takeru, Wei Hsi-Hsien, Matson Pamela A
Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, China.
UniSA Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA.
Health Place. 2025 Jul;94:103489. doi: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2025.103489. Epub 2025 May 23.
Debates continue over the effectiveness of limiting alcohol outlet density in reducing alcohol consumption, and its broader impacts on access to non-alcoholic services in low-income urban communities remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by investigating the impacts of alcohol outlet zoning policies on alcohol consumption and walkable access to non-alcoholic services in low-income urban communities with different baseline densities of liquor and grocery stores. We developed a spatial agent-based model of Baltimore City neighborhoods, simulating the closure of non-conforming liquor stores following the city's zoning code rewrite. The model was calibrated using national survey data and empirical research on alcohol consumption and walkable access to alcohol, food, lottery, and ATM outlets by subgroups. We observed non-linear relationships and differences by gender and employment status in the effects of liquor store closures on heavy drinking, with policies showing limited effectiveness in neighborhoods with high baseline liquor store density. While the policies had minimal impact on access to food and ATMs due to high prevalence of grocery stores, they reduced access to lottery services. Our modeling approach serves as a valuable decision-making tool for policymakers to explore hypothetical scenarios, identify tipping points of policy impacts, and provide actionable insights into the complex interactions between zoning policies and neighborhood dynamics concerning alcohol consumption and access to essential goods and services.
关于限制酒类销售点密度在减少酒精消费方面的有效性的争论仍在继续，而其对低收入城市社区获得非酒精类服务的更广泛影响仍未得到充分探索。本研究通过调查酒类销售点分区政策对不同酒类和杂货店基线密度的低收入城市社区的酒精消费以及获得非酒精类服务的步行可达性的影响，填补了这一空白。我们开发了一个基于主体的巴尔的摩市社区空间模型，模拟了该市分区法规重写后不符合规定的酒类商店的关闭情况。该模型使用全国调查数据以及关于不同亚组酒精消费以及获得酒精、食品、彩票和自动取款机服务的步行可达性的实证研究进行了校准。我们观察到酒类商店关闭对重度饮酒的影响存在非线性关系以及性别和就业状况差异，在基线酒类商店密度高的社区，政策效果有限。虽然由于杂货店普遍存在，这些政策对获得食品和自动取款机服务的影响最小，但它们减少了获得彩票服务的机会。我们的建模方法为政策制定者提供了一个有价值的决策工具，用于探索假设情景、确定政策影响的临界点，并就分区政策与社区动态之间关于酒精消费以及获得基本商品和服务的复杂相互作用提供可操作的见解。
