Çelen Zekeriya Ersin, Özkurt Bülent, Kurt Murat, Utkan Ali
Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, Yalova Training and Research Hospital, Yalova, Turkey.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2025 May 23;104(21):e42025. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000042025.
The aim of the study was to investigate the predictors of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly hip fracture patients, as well as the effects of POD on in-hospital results, including complications, duration of hospital stay, and mortality. In this prospective cohort study, 225 consecutive hip hemiarthroplasty patients over the age of 65 who underwent surgery at a high-volume training and research hospital between June 2021 and June 2023 were investigated. Pathological fracture, death within the postoperative first 5 days, and missing data were exclusion criteria. The collected data included demographics, laboratory examination results, and comorbidities. The main outcome measure was POD, and the assessment tool for delirium was the Confusion Assessment Method. All patients were assessed daily in terms of POD for at least 5 postoperative days. To determine independent predictors of POD, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to investigate the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and determine optimal cutoff points. Fifty-seven (25.3%) patients were diagnosed with delirium. Multivariate analysis showed that lower postoperative albumin (OR: 0.43, P = .012), higher postoperative blood glucose (OR: 1.01, P < .001), and the presence of preoperative delirium (OR: 8.44, P = .003) were independent predictive factors for POD. According to the ROC curves, the area under curve value of the predictive model was 0.700 (95% CI: 0.619-0.781, P < .001), indicating good discriminative ability. The optimal cutoff values of the postoperative blood glucose and postoperative albumin levels for delirium prediction were calculated at 141.5 mg/dL and 3.11 g/dL. The POD group experienced a significantly greater rate of in-hospital mortality as well as longer hospital stays (P = .004 and.012, respectively). Our data suggest that preoperative delirium, higher postoperative blood glucose, and lower postoperative serum albumin levels can be used as perioperative predictors of POD in patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty for hip fracture. Closely monitoring patients with postoperative blood glucose ≥ 141.5 mg/dL and postoperative serum albumin ≤ 3.11 g/dL and implementing preventative strategies may be beneficial to improve patient outcomes.
本研究旨在调查老年髋部骨折患者术后谵妄(POD)的预测因素,以及POD对住院结果的影响,包括并发症、住院时间和死亡率。在这项前瞻性队列研究中,对2021年6月至2023年6月期间在一家大型培训和研究医院接受手术的225例连续65岁以上髋部半关节置换术患者进行了调查。病理性骨折、术后前5天内死亡和缺失数据为排除标准。收集的数据包括人口统计学、实验室检查结果和合并症。主要结局指标为POD,谵妄评估工具为混乱评估法。所有患者术后至少5天每天进行POD评估。为确定POD的独立预测因素,进行了单因素和多因素逻辑回归分析。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线研究逻辑回归模型的预测性能并确定最佳截断点。57例(25.3%)患者被诊断为谵妄。多因素分析显示,术后白蛋白水平较低(OR:0.43,P = 0.012)、术后血糖较高(OR:1.01,P < 0.001)以及术前存在谵妄(OR:8.44,P = 0.003)是POD的独立预测因素。根据ROC曲线,预测模型的曲线下面积值为0.700(95%CI:0.619 - 0.781,P < 0.001),表明具有良好的判别能力。谵妄预测的术后血糖和术后白蛋白水平的最佳截断值分别计算为141.5mg/dL和3.11g/dL。POD组的院内死亡率和住院时间显著更高(分别为P = 0.004和0.012)。我们的数据表明,术前谵妄、术后血糖较高和术后血清白蛋白水平较低可作为髋部骨折半关节置换术患者围手术期POD的预测指标。密切监测术后血糖≥141.5mg/dL和术后血清白蛋白≤3.11g/dL的患者并实施预防策略可能有助于改善患者预后。