Mu Zihan, Su Jiaojiao, Yi Jiuhua, Fan Rui, Yin Jiayuan, Li Yazhao, Yao Bowen
Zonglian College, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Center for Translational Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
BMC Cancer. 2025 May 26;25(1):941. doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-14344-0.
Death and tumor recurrence are both important adverse prognostic factors for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) patients. This article aims to discuss the risk factors for recurrence and death in patients with HCC after R0 resection, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence and death of HCC patients.A total of 224 HCC patients after R0 resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 149) and a validation cohort (n = 75) The risk factors for recurrence and death were determined based on cox regression analysis. A nomogram containing independent risk predictors was established and validated.The recurrence rate of 224 cases of HCC after R0 resection was 43.30%. The high expression of interleukin-41(IL41) (HR = 2.446, P = 0.000), intratumoral artery (HR = 1.862, P = 0.005), and MVI1 subgroup of microvascular invasion(MVI) grade (HR = 1.541, P = 0.031) are independent risk factors associated with recurrence after resection of HCC. The mortality rate was 15.63%. The high expression of IL-41 (HR = 4.679, P = 0.000), tumor size ≥ 5 cm (HR = 3.745, P = 0.001), and Aspartate transaminase(AST) concentration 45-90u/L (HR = 2.837, P = 0.015) are independent risk factors associated with mortality. Interleukin-41(IL-41), microvascular invasion(MVI), and intratumoral artery are independent risk factors for recurrence after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma. IL-41, tumor size, and Aspartate transaminase(AST) are independent risk factors for death after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma. We developed and validated two multivariate nomograms, and conducted validation. The nomogram models have achieved ideal results in predicting the recurrence and death of HCC patients.
死亡和肿瘤复发都是肝细胞癌（HCC）患者重要的不良预后因素。本文旨在探讨HCC患者R0切除术后复发和死亡的危险因素，并建立预测HCC患者复发和死亡的列线图模型。共纳入224例R0切除术后的HCC患者，分为训练队列（n = 149）和验证队列（n = 75）。基于Cox回归分析确定复发和死亡的危险因素。建立并验证了包含独立风险预测因子的列线图。224例HCC患者R0切除术后的复发率为43.30%。白细胞介素-41（IL41）高表达（HR = 2.446，P = 0.000）、瘤内动脉（HR = 1.862，P = 0.005）和微血管侵犯（MVI）分级的MVI1亚组（HR = 1.541，P = 0.031）是HCC切除术后复发的独立危险因素。死亡率为15.63%。IL-41高表达（HR = 4.679，P = 0.000）、肿瘤大小≥5 cm（HR = 3.745，P = 0.001）和天冬氨酸转氨酶（AST）浓度45 - 90u/L（HR = 2.837，P = 0.015）是与死亡率相关的独立危险因素。白细胞介素-41（IL-41）、微血管侵犯（MVI）和瘤内动脉是肝细胞癌切除术后复发的独立危险因素。IL-41、肿瘤大小和天冬氨酸转氨酶（AST）是肝细胞癌切除术后死亡的独立危险因素。我们开发并验证了两个多变量列线图，并进行了验证。列线图模型在预测HCC患者的复发和死亡方面取得了理想结果。
