Yuan Xiaojuan, Ran Weiwei, Xu Wenming, Zhao Yuanqi, Su Di, Song Yuehua
School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China.
State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China.
Insects. 2025 Apr 24;16(5):450. doi: 10.3390/insects16050450.
This study examines the distribution dynamics of the tribe Erythroneurini, a group of economically significant leafhoppers in China that pose threats to crops through sap feeding and virus transmission, while also serving as valuable ecological indicators due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Through a systematic evaluation of 12 species distribution models (SDMs), we ultimately selected the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting species distributions. The R-optimized MaxEnt model incorporated 11 environmental variables and 218 occurrence records to assess habitat suitability under historical, current, and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The model was configured with LQP features and a default regularization multiplier value of 1. Results reveal that temperature (BIO6, BIO2, BIO4) and precipitation (BIO12) are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with tropical and subtropical regions identified as the most favorable. Future projections indicate a complex pattern of habitat contraction and expansion, with a notable northward shift toward higher latitudes under climate change. These findings highlight the profound impact of climate change on Erythroneurini distribution, underscoring the need for proactive management. Implementing long-term monitoring and targeted control in vulnerable regions mitigates ecological and agricultural risks, supporting sustainable pest management and fostering the integration of ecological conservation with agricultural development.
本研究考察了红脉叶蝉族的分布动态，该族叶蝉在中国是一类具有经济重要性的叶蝉，通过吸食汁液和传播病毒对作物构成威胁，同时由于它们对环境变化敏感，也是有价值的生态指标。通过对12种物种分布模型（SDMs）进行系统评估，我们最终选择了最大熵（MaxEnt）模型来预测物种分布。经R优化的MaxEnt模型纳入了11个环境变量和218个出现记录，以评估历史、当前和未来气候情景（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5）下的栖息地适宜性。该模型配置了LQP特征，默认正则化乘数为1。结果表明，温度（BIO6、BIO2、BIO4）和降水（BIO12）是栖息地适宜性的主要驱动因素，热带和亚热带地区被确定为最适宜的地区。未来预测表明栖息地收缩和扩张的模式复杂，在气候变化下向高纬度地区有明显的向北转移。这些发现突出了气候变化对红脉叶蝉族分布的深远影响，强调了积极管理的必要性。在脆弱地区实施长期监测和有针对性的控制可减轻生态和农业风险，支持可持续的害虫管理，并促进生态保护与农业发展的整合。
