Wang Yongji, Xie Liyuan, Zhou Xueyong, Chen Renfei, Zhao Guanghua, Zhang Fenguo
School of Life Science Shanxi Normal University Taiyuan China.
Ecol Evol. 2023 Oct 19;13(10):e10597. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10597. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of . When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of . Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126-2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585-2090s scenario.
虎杖是一种具有很高药用和食用价值的传统中药材。近年来野生资源急剧减少。本研究预测了虎杖在中国的分布范围对气候变化的响应,为其保护和利用提供了科学依据。在本研究中,基于GIS技术和spThin软件包选择了489个虎杖出现点。利用R环境的ENMeva1软件包调整MaxEnt模型的默认参数,并使用优化后的MaxEnt模型分析虎杖的分布。当模型参数中的特征组合为hing且正则化乘数为1.5时,MaxEnt模型具有较高的优化程度。我们的模型AUC为0.830,显示出良好的预测性能。结果表明,虎杖在当前时期分布广泛。最暖月最高温度、最冷月最低温度、最湿月降水量、最干月降水量和海拔是影响虎杖分布的主要环境因素。在三种气候变化情景下,虎杖适宜分布区将向高纬度地区发生范围转移,表明虎杖分布对气候变化有强烈响应。区域变化率在SSP126 - 2090年代情景下最低,在SSP585 - 2090年代情景下最高。