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从2000年到2022年,数十亿人面临着气温上升但绿地面积减少的情况。

Billions of people exposed to increasing heat but decreasing greenness from 2000 to 2022.

作者信息

Ye Tingting, Xu Rongbin, Huang Wenzhong, Yang Zhengyu, Yu Pei, Yu Wenhua, Liu Yanming, Wu Yao, Wen Bo, Zhang Yiwen, Hart Jaime E, Nieuwenhuijsen Mark, Abramson Michael J, Guo Yuming, Li Shanshan

机构信息

School of Medicine, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China.

Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.

出版信息

Innovation (Camb). 2025 Mar 7;6(5):100870. doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2025.100870. eCollection 2025 May 5.

Abstract

Rising heat stress due to climate warming poses a significant threat to human health, and greenness offers a nature-based solution to mitigate heat-related health impacts and enhance resilience. Although global greenness has increased, it remains unclear whether these trends align with the population's heat mitigation needs. In this study, we integrated spatially resolved demographic data with satellite-derived greenness metric and reanalysis-based heat stress data to construct a global profile of joint exposure at 1 × 1 km resolution from 2000 to 2022. We found that 69.3% of global populated areas and 41.3% of the global population (∼2.9 billion people) were exposed to increasing heat stress but decreasing greenness (IHDG), representing the most concerning situation for heat mitigation. Urban populations were disproportionately affected, with 50.8% exposed compared to 27.1% in rural areas. Low- and middle-income countries exhibited more pronounced trends of increasing heat stress and bore the greatest burden from IHDG, accounting for 85% of total exposed populations. Moreover, there was a notable demographic shift in IHDG-exposed populations toward older groups, exacerbating the heat mitigation crisis. This study advances the understanding of the joint dynamics of heat stress and greenness and provides a profile of population exposure at a fine grid level. By highlighting the scale of IHDG conditions, our findings emphasize the urgent need to address this environmental challenge and a significant opportunity for improving greenness to mitigate increasing heat globally. The spatially detailed assessment maps offer essential data for informed decision-making.

摘要

气候变暖导致热应激加剧,对人类健康构成重大威胁,而绿化提供了一种基于自然的解决方案,以减轻与热相关的健康影响并增强复原力。尽管全球绿化面积有所增加,但这些趋势是否与民众的热缓解需求相一致仍不清楚。在本研究中,我们将空间分辨率的人口数据与卫星衍生的绿化指标和基于再分析的热应激数据相结合,构建了2000年至2022年1×1千米分辨率的全球联合暴露概况。我们发现,全球69.3%的人口居住区和41.3%的全球人口(约29亿人)面临热应激增加但绿化减少的情况(IHDG),这代表了热缓解方面最令人担忧的情况。城市人口受到的影响尤为严重,50.8%的城市人口暴露于这种情况,而农村地区这一比例为27.1%。低收入和中等收入国家热应激增加的趋势更为明显,并且承受着IHDG带来的最大负担,占总暴露人口的85%。此外,IHDG暴露人群出现了明显的向老年群体的人口结构转变,加剧了热缓解危机。本研究推进了对热应激和绿化联合动态的理解,并提供了精细网格水平上的人口暴露概况。通过突出IHDG情况的规模,我们的研究结果强调了应对这一环境挑战的迫切需求,以及改善绿化以缓解全球日益增加的热度的重大机遇。空间详细评估地图为明智的决策提供了重要数据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/062f/12105507/3cbb3159d727/fx1.jpg

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