Collins Louisa G, Elliott Thomas M, Webb Ann, Reid Ian R, Sinclair Craig, Comans Tracy, Karnon Jonathan, Foeglein Anna, van Gorp Karen, Fanning Vanessa, Neale Rachel E
Viertel Cancer Research Centre, Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Q4006, Australia.
Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD, Q4006, Australia.
Photochem Photobiol Sci. 2025 May 28. doi: 10.1007/s43630-025-00726-7.
Multiple health problems are associated with either over- or under-exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Using an agent-based microsimulation model, we examined the joint health and economic effects of conditions arising from over-exposure to sunlight (i.e., melanoma, keratinocyte skin carcinoma (KC) and cataract) and under-exposure to sunlight via vitamin D deficiency (i.e., fragility fractures and multiple sclerosis). We developed an agent-based model to estimate and compare incident cases, disease-specific deaths, healthcare costs and losses in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) attributable to over- or under-exposure to UV radiation. Simulations were performed over a 20-year period for populations in 14 locations across Australia and New Zealand. Conditions caused by over-exposure to UV radiation were predicted to result in 6.0 and 1.2 million new cases compared with 0.12 and 0.08 million cases from under-exposure in Australia and New Zealand, respectively. However, the number of deaths due to under-exposure (Australia: 58,503; New Zealand: 20,104) were higher than those arising from over-exposure (Australia: 49,320; New Zealand: 7136), but this was dependent on the definition of vitamin D deficiency used. The expected healthcare costs from over-exposure to UV radiation were AU$12.4 billion in Australia and NZ$5.2 billion in New Zealand, three-fold higher than costs for conditions attributable to under-exposure in both countries. Despite the enormous burden of skin cancers, highlighting the importance of sun protection, avoidable deaths and healthcare costs of fragility fractures due to a lack of UV radiation requires a reduction in vitamin D deficiency in Australians and New Zealanders.
多种健康问题与紫外线(UV)辐射暴露过度或不足相关。我们使用基于主体的微观模拟模型,研究了阳光暴露过度(即黑色素瘤、角质形成细胞皮肤癌(KC)和白内障)以及因维生素D缺乏导致阳光暴露不足(即脆性骨折和多发性硬化症)所引发状况的联合健康和经济影响。我们开发了一个基于主体的模型,以估计和比较归因于紫外线辐射暴露过度或不足的发病病例、疾病特异性死亡、医疗费用以及质量调整生命年(QALY)损失。对澳大利亚和新西兰14个地区的人群进行了为期20年的模拟。预计在澳大利亚和新西兰,紫外线辐射暴露过度导致的疾病分别会出现600万和120万新病例,而暴露不足导致的病例分别为12万和8万。然而,暴露不足导致的死亡人数(澳大利亚:58503人;新西兰:20104人)高于暴露过度导致的死亡人数(澳大利亚:49320人;新西兰:7136人),但这取决于所使用的维生素D缺乏的定义。在澳大利亚,紫外线辐射暴露过度预计产生的医疗费用为124亿澳元,在新西兰为52亿新西兰元,比两国因暴露不足导致的疾病费用高出三倍。尽管皮肤癌负担巨大,凸显了防晒的重要性,但由于缺乏紫外线辐射导致的脆性骨折的可避免死亡和医疗费用,要求澳大利亚人和新西兰人减少维生素D缺乏的情况。
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