Yang Weixing, Li Tingting, Wen Bo, Ren Yuan
Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi'an, China.
Experimental Research Department, Technical Centre, Northwest Survey and Design Research Institute of China Electric Construction Group Co.
PLoS One. 2025 May 28;20(5):e0324604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324604. eCollection 2025.
Current predictive methods for dam failures in reservoirs remain limited, indicating that the underlying mechanisms of such failures are not yet fully understood. To further elucidate the interrelationships among safety monitoring data in the reservoir area, this study established 36 monitoring cross-sections distributed across upper, middle, and lower slope zones. Each cross-section was instrumented with eight different types of monitoring devices. A total of 4,320 samples were collected (432 samples per instrument type), resulting in an overall dataset of 34,560 measurements. The monitoring data were sequentially analyzed using: (1) descriptive statistics, (2) Welch/Brown-Forsythe post hoc One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and (3) cluster analysis. The results demonstrate that: (1) Significant correlations exist among monitoring variables, with the strongest positive correlation observed between loading and lean (r = 0.40), while the strongest negative correlation occurred between sedimentation and stress (r = -0.39). (2) Cluster analysis of the eight monitoring variables revealed two distinct clusters: soil displacement, stress, and water-level formed one cluster, while the remaining variables comprised the second cluster. In summary, variations in monitoring data and their correlations resulted from water-level and environmental changes in the reservoir area, with spatial differences across monitoring types. A thorough investigation of these variations and their causes will enable accurate safety assessments of the reservoir area and support tailored response strategies for different locations.
目前水库大坝失事的预测方法仍然有限,这表明此类失事的潜在机制尚未得到充分理解。为了进一步阐明库区安全监测数据之间的相互关系,本研究在水库上、中、下游边坡区域建立了36个监测断面。每个断面配备了8种不同类型的监测设备。共采集了4320个样本(每种仪器类型432个样本),形成了一个包含34560次测量的总体数据集。对监测数据依次进行了以下分析:(1)描述性统计,(2)Welch/Brown-Forsythe事后单因素方差分析(ANOVA),以及(3)聚类分析。结果表明:(1)监测变量之间存在显著相关性,其中荷载与倾斜之间的正相关性最强(r = 0.40),而淤积与应力之间的负相关性最强(r = -0.39)。(2)对8个监测变量的聚类分析揭示了两个不同的聚类:土壤位移、应力和水位形成一个聚类,而其余变量组成第二个聚类。总之,监测数据的变化及其相关性是由库区水位和环境变化引起的,不同监测类型存在空间差异。对这些变化及其原因进行深入调查将有助于对库区进行准确的安全评估,并支持针对不同位置的定制应对策略。