Hafezi Somaye Ghiasi, Ranjbar Mahdi, Ghasemabadi Atena, Effati Sohrab, Naserghandi Alvand, Namakin Kosar, Allameh Farzad
Biostatistics School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 29;15(1):18873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-03993-7.
Mathematical models can estimate the success rate of assisted reproductive technology (ART) and determine which treatment suits the best. In this study, the authors introduce two new dynamic models that can predict the success rate of ART models for each individual based on the etiology of their infertility, clinical findings, and lab tests. The study shows that the equilibrium point free of disease is asymptotically stable and forward bifurcation occurs. Our dynamical models evaluate ART success rates in our subgroups considering couples under Intrauterine insemination (IUI), In Vitro Fertilization-Embryo Transfer (IVF), Intra-Cytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) treatment methods. Sensitivity analysis of parameters suggests that an increase in infertile couples who use IUI and ICSI treatment methods can result in better disease control and a more favorable outcome. It should be noted that the proposed models provide a systematic framework for simulating the dynamics of infertility and assessing the effectiveness of various ART. From a clinical perspective, these models have the potential to enhance decision-making by predicting the probability of ART success under diverse treatment scenarios. Such predictions may facilitate the personalization of treatment strategies based on individual patient profiles and contribute to more efficient resource allocation and planning within fertility centers.
数学模型可以估计辅助生殖技术（ART）的成功率，并确定哪种治疗最为合适。在本研究中，作者引入了两种新的动态模型，它们能够根据个体的不孕病因、临床检查结果和实验室检测来预测ART模型对每个个体的成功率。研究表明，无病平衡点是渐近稳定的，并且会出现正向分岔。我们的动态模型在考虑接受宫内人工授精（IUI）、体外受精-胚胎移植（IVF）、卵胞浆内单精子注射（ICSI）治疗方法的夫妇的亚组中评估ART成功率。参数的敏感性分析表明，采用IUI和ICSI治疗方法的不孕夫妇数量增加可导致更好的疾病控制和更有利的结果。应当指出，所提出的模型为模拟不孕不育动态和评估各种ART的有效性提供了一个系统框架。从临床角度来看，这些模型有可能通过预测不同治疗方案下ART成功的概率来加强决策制定。此类预测可能有助于根据个体患者情况制定个性化的治疗策略，并有助于在生育中心内更有效地进行资源分配和规划。
