Abdullah S M, Huque Rumana, Shashi Nahian Azad, Hassan Md Tariq, Kanaan Mona, Siddiqi Kamran
Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Tob Control. 2025 Jun 5. doi: 10.1136/tc-2024-059131.
Bangladesh's cigarette smoking prevalence remained unchanged (around 14%) between 2009 and 2017. Through tax evasion and regulatory non-compliance, illicit trade might have contributed to the status quo. Little is known about the magnitude of illicit cigarettes in Bangladesh.
We analysed empty cigarette packs collected from retailers and street litter in eight districts in Bangladesh between December 2019 and January 2020. We examined tax stamps on packs to assess tax evasion and printed health warnings, retail prices, sales declarations, misleading descriptors, and duty-free signs to determine packaging law compliance. All but tax-paid and compliant packs were considered illicit. We examined associations between tax evasion and price or non-price factors. Sensitivity and specificity of packaging compliance were measured when used as a proxy for tax evasion.
Among 24 363 cigarette packs examined from sampled districts in Bangladesh (23 207 from shops and 1156 from litter), 5.32% (95% CI: 5.04% to 5.60%) evaded taxes, while only 0.77% (95% CI: 0.4% to 1.4%) were non-compliant with packaging laws, totalling 5.62% (95% CI: 4.3% to 7.1%) illicit share. This neither differed statistically significantly between packs collected from shops (5.47%; 95% CI: 4.2% to 7.0%) and those from litter (8.13%; 95% CI: 5.7% to 11.1%) nor between urban (5.15%; 95% CI: 3.5% to 7.3%) and rural (6.16%; 95% CI: 4.2% to 8.7%) areas. Low-price cigarettes (OR: 3.48; 95% CI: 2.10 to 5.75) and those sold in unconventional shops (OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.12 to 3.54) were more likely to be tax evaded than high-price cigarettes and those sold in formal shops, respectively. Packaging non-compliance was not a sensitive marker for detecting tax-evaded cigarettes.
Bangladesh has a low share of illicit cigarette packs. While surveillance of the illicit cigarette trade is essential, the government should continue to enhance cigarette taxes without concern for its effect on the illicit trade.
2009年至2017年间，孟加拉国的吸烟率保持不变（约14%）。通过逃税和监管违规行为，非法贸易可能导致了这种现状。关于孟加拉国非法香烟的规模，人们知之甚少。
我们分析了2019年12月至2020年1月期间从孟加拉国八个地区的零售商和街道垃圾中收集的空烟盒。我们检查烟盒上的税票以评估逃税情况，并检查印刷的健康警告、零售价格、销售申报、误导性描述和免税标志，以确定包装法律的合规情况。除了已缴税且合规的烟盒外，其他所有烟盒都被视为非法。我们研究了逃税与价格或非价格因素之间的关联。当用作逃税的替代指标时，测量了包装合规性的敏感性和特异性。
在从孟加拉国抽样地区检查的24363个烟盒中（23207个来自商店，1156个来自垃圾），5.32%（95%置信区间：5.04%至5.60%）逃税，而只有0.77%（95%置信区间：0.4%至1.4%）不符合包装法律，非法份额总计5.62%（95%置信区间：4.3%至7.1%）。这在从商店收集的烟盒（5.47%；95%置信区间：4.2%至7.0%）和从垃圾中收集的烟盒（8.13%；95%置信区间：5.7%至11.1%）之间，以及城市（5.15%；95%置信区间：3.5%至7.
