Boukhris I, Collalti A, Lahssini S, Dalmonech D, Nakhle F, Testolin R, Chiriacò M V, Santini M, Valentini R
Forest Ecology Lab, Department for Innovation in Biological, Agri-Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, 01100, Viterbo, Italy.
CMCC Foundation-Euro-Mediterranean Center On Climate Change, Via Marco Biagi 5, 73100 , Lecce, Italy.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2025 May 31;20(1):12. doi: 10.1186/s13021-025-00296-2.
Harvested wood products (HWPs) have a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, a recognition solidified in many Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Integrating HWPs' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals into accounting requirements relies on typical decision-oriented tools known as wood product models (WPMs). The study introduces the TimberTracer (TT) framework, designed to simulate HWP carbon stock, substitution effects, and emissions from wood decay and bioenergy.
Coupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, TimberTracer was applied to Laricio Pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) in Italy's Bonis watershed, evaluating three forest management practices (clearcut, selective thinning, and shelterwood) and four wood-use scenarios (business as usual, increased recycling rate, extended average lifespan, and a simultaneous increase in both the recycling rate and the average lifespan) over a 140 year planning horizon, to assess the overall carbon balance of HWPs. Furthermore, this study evaluates the consequences of disregarding landfill methane emissions and relying on static substitution factors, assessing their impact on the mitigation potential of various options. This investigation, covering HWPs stock, carbon (C) emissions, and the substitution effect, revealed that selective thinning emerged as the optimal forest management scenario. In addition, a simultaneous 10% increase in both the recycling rate and half-life, under the so-called "sustainability" scenario, proved to be the optimal wood-use strategy. Finally, the analysis shows that failing to account for landfill methane emissions and the use of dynamic substitution can significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of various forest management and wood-use options, which underscores the critical importance of a comprehensive accounting in climate mitigation strategies involving HWPs.
Our study highlights the critical role of harvested wood products (HWPs) in climate change mitigation, as endorsed by multiple Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Utilizing the TimberTracer framework coupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, we identified selective thinning as the optimal forest management practice. Additionally, enhancing recycling rates and extending product lifespan effectively bolstered the carbon balance. Moreover, this study emphasizes the necessity of accounting for landfill methane emissions and dynamic product substitution, as failing to do so may significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of implemented projects. These findings offer actionable insights to optimize forest management strategies and advance climate change mitigation efforts.
采伐木制品（HWPs）在缓解气候变化方面发挥着关键作用，这一认识在《巴黎协定》下的许多国家自主贡献（NDCs）中得到了强化。将HWPs的温室气体（GHG）排放和清除纳入核算要求依赖于被称为木材产品模型（WPMs）的典型决策导向工具。本研究介绍了TimberTracer（TT）框架，该框架旨在模拟HWP碳储量、替代效应以及木材腐烂和生物能源产生的排放。
TimberTracer与3D - CMCC - FEM森林生长模型相结合，应用于意大利博尼斯流域的拉里奥松（Pinus nigra subsp. laricio），在140年的规划期内评估了三种森林管理实践（皆伐、选择性间伐和渐伐）和四种木材使用情景（照常营业、提高回收率、延长平均寿命以及回收率和平均寿命同时提高），以评估HWPs的总体碳平衡。此外，本研究评估了忽略垃圾填埋场甲烷排放和依赖静态替代因子的后果，评估了它们对各种方案缓解潜力的影响。这项涵盖HWPs储量、碳（C）排放和替代效应的调查表明，选择性间伐是最佳的森林管理情景。此外，在所谓的“可持续性”情景下，回收率和半衰期同时提高10%被证明是最佳的木材使用策略。最后，分析表明，不考虑垃圾填埋场甲烷排放和使用动态替代可能会显著高估各种森林管理和木材使用方案的缓解潜力，这突出了在涉及HWPs的气候缓解策略中进行全面核算的至关重要性。
我们的研究强调了采伐木制品（HWPs）在缓解气候变化中的关键作用，这得到了《巴黎协定》下多个国家自主贡献（NDCs）的认可。利用TimberTracer框架与3D - CMCC - FEM森林生长模型相结合，我们确定选择性间伐是最佳的森林管理实践。此外，提高回收率和延长产品寿命有效地改善了碳平衡。此外，本研究强调了考虑垃圾填埋场甲烷排放和动态产品替代的必要性，因为不这样做可能会显著高估已实施项目的缓解潜力。这些发现为优化森林管理策略和推进气候变化缓解工作提供了可操作的见解。
