Zhu Yongguang, Ye Xing, Ali Saleem H, Dou Shiquan, Cheng Jinhua, Liu Gang, Xu Deyi
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Research Center for Resources and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
iScience. 2025 Apr 17;28(5):112462. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112462. eCollection 2025 May 16.
The limited availability of lithium resources is often considered as potential constraints for the wide implementation of lithium-ion battery (LIB) energy storage technology. Alternative storage solutions, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), are thus gaining traction as viable substitutes for LIB energy storage. However, how price volatility and cost affect technology substitution and thus scale and dynamics of energy storage market remains hitherto poorly characterized. Here, we construct a binary mineral resource substitution model within the energy storage sector of China, integrating energy storage costs with the prices of lithium carbonate and vanadium pentoxide. We reveal a mutualistic relationship between LIB and VRB, where the substitutability elasticity of vanadium pentoxide prices relative to lithium carbonate prices gradually decreases as prices rise. Through scenario simulations, we explore various price scenarios and strategic development paths, finding that VRBs show potential for market penetration when vanadium prices are low and lithium carbonate prices are high or moderate. The optimal transformation path is to follow the planning path until 2030 and then transition to the radial path until 2060.
锂资源的有限供应常被视为锂离子电池（LIB）储能技术广泛应用的潜在制约因素。因此，诸如钒氧化还原液流电池（VRB）等替代储能解决方案正作为LIB储能的可行替代品而受到越来越多的关注。然而，价格波动和成本如何影响技术替代，进而影响储能市场的规模和动态，目前仍缺乏充分的描述。在此，我们构建了一个中国储能领域的二元矿产资源替代模型，将储能成本与碳酸锂和五氧化二钒的价格相结合。我们揭示了LIB和VRB之间的共生关系，即随着价格上涨，五氧化二钒价格相对于碳酸锂价格的替代弹性逐渐降低。通过情景模拟，我们探索了各种价格情景和战略发展路径，发现当钒价格较低且碳酸锂价格较高或适中时，VRB具有市场渗透潜力。最优转型路径是在2030年前遵循规划路径，然后在2060年前过渡到径向路径。
