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利用机器学习揭示化学和气象因素对地面臭氧的影响:对臭氧-气候控制策略的见解

Using machine learning to unravel chemical and meteorological effects on ground-level ozone: Insights for ozone-climate control strategies.

作者信息

Li Zhiyuan, Wang Yifan, Liu Junling, Xian Junrui

机构信息

School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Intelligent Sensing and Proactive Health Research Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbes and Biosafety, School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China.

School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2025 Jul;201:109567. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109567. Epub 2025 May 30.


DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109567
PMID:40466384
Abstract

In the context of climate change, various countries/regions across East Asia have witnessed severe ground-level ozone (O) pollution, which poses potential health risks to the public. The complex relationships between O and its drivers, including the precursors and meteorological variables, are not yet fully understood. Revealing the impact of multiple drivers on O is crucial for providing evidence-based information for pollution control. In the present study, we evaluated the influence of key chemical-aerosol (e.g., volatile organic compounds, PM, NO) and meteorological drivers (e.g., air temperature, relative humidity) on ground-level O pollution at Tucheng site in New Taipei, Northern Taiwan, using fine-resolution atmospheric composition measurements and machine learning. The developed random forest machine learning models performed well, with 10-fold cross-validation R values above 0.867. The results reveal seasonal disparities on chemical and meteorological effects on ground-level O between winter and summer. Aggregated SHAP values indicated that chemical (e.g., NO and VOCs) and aerosol variables (i.e., PM) accounted for 82.4 % of the explained variance in winter O predictions and 62.1 % in summer. Meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity) contributed the remaining variance, highlighting seasonally shifting sensitivities. Across seasons, temperature, 1,2,3-Trimethylbenzene, NO, t-2-Butene, and relative humidity were identified as the dominant drivers of ground-level O predictions, reflecting their modelled associations with elevated O concentrations. The machine learning-based modelling framework developed in this study can be easily adapted to new sampling sites with minor modifications if necessary.

摘要

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