Flori Andrea, Spelta Alessandro
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jun 4;16(1):5199. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59913-w.
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is designed to promote cost-effective carbon emission reductions through allowance trading. However, observed trade patterns suggest potential inefficiencies. This study conducts a province-level analysis of the EU ETS trade network of allowances, demonstrating that trades predominantly occur between entities within the same country and sector, even in recent phases of the system. To systematically examine the mesoscale structure of the trade network while accounting for geographical and sectoral homophily, we introduce a community detection framework based on the gravity model and optimal transport theory. By disentangling home and sectoral biases, we identify trade communities that align with cultural dimensions. Our findings reveal a complex interplay between geographical, economic, and cultural factors that shape carbon allowances trade patterns. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of structural constraints within the EU ETS trade network and inform strategies for improving its cost-effectiveness.
欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）旨在通过配额交易促进具有成本效益的碳排放减少。然而，观察到的贸易模式表明存在潜在的低效率。本研究对欧盟排放交易体系配额贸易网络进行了省级分析，表明即使在该体系的近期阶段，交易主要发生在同一国家和部门内的实体之间。为了在考虑地理和部门同质性的同时系统地研究贸易网络的中尺度结构，我们引入了一个基于引力模型和最优传输理论的社区检测框架。通过区分本土和部门偏差，我们识别出与文化维度一致的贸易社区。我们的研究结果揭示了地理、经济和文化因素之间复杂的相互作用，这些因素塑造了碳排放配额的贸易模式。这些发现有助于更深入地理解欧盟排放交易体系贸易网络中的结构约束，并为提高其成本效益的策略提供信息。
