Kang Hyojung, Janakos Kaylee, Varga Csaba
Department of Health and Kinesiology, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 61802, USA.
Health Care Engineering Systems Center, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 61802, USA.
J Urban Health. 2025 Jun;102(3):627-639. doi: 10.1007/s11524-025-00986-9. Epub 2025 Jun 5.
Overdose deaths involving fentanyl represent a major public health crisis in the USA. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of fentanyl-involved deaths before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic and examines how sociodemographic factors influence these deaths across geographic regions. Using a retrospective ecological approach, we analyzed data on ZIP code-level fentanyl-related deaths in Cook County, IL, between 2018 and 2023, obtained from the Medical Examiner's Office and linked with sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey. We first mapped area-level death rates to assess their distribution and then conducted global and local clustering analyses to identify spatial autocorrelations and the locations of high- or low-death-rate areas. A geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model evaluated the associations between area-level fentanyl-related death rates and the area-level proportion of young adults, males, and individuals with at least a college degree, disability rate, and poverty rate. Spatial analyses found stronger spatial autocorrelations during (2020-2021) and after (2022-2023) the pandemic. Initially, high death rates were concentrated in the downtown area of Chicago, and they expanded to the surrounding areas during and after the pandemic. The GWPR model revealed that an increase in the area-level proportions of poverty, disability, and young adult residents increased the fentanyl-related death rates in most of the areas. Our findings highlight the urgent need to address the evolving dynamics of fentanyl-related overdoses through tailored public health interventions that account for the unique socioeconomic determinants of different regions. Importantly, a comprehensive approach to addressing differences in overdose death rates and their risk factors will be crucial to mitigating this public health crisis.
涉及芬太尼的过量用药死亡事件是美国面临的重大公共卫生危机。本研究调查了新冠疫情之前、期间和之后涉及芬太尼的死亡事件的时空动态,并探讨了社会人口因素如何在不同地理区域影响这些死亡事件。我们采用回顾性生态方法,分析了2018年至2023年伊利诺伊州库克县邮政编码层面与芬太尼相关的死亡数据,这些数据来自法医办公室,并与美国社区调查的社会人口数据相关联。我们首先绘制区域层面的死亡率地图以评估其分布情况,然后进行全局和局部聚类分析,以识别空间自相关性以及高死亡率或低死亡率区域的位置。地理加权泊松回归(GWPR)模型评估了区域层面与芬太尼相关的死亡率与年轻成年人、男性、至少拥有大学学位的个体、残疾率和贫困率在区域层面的比例之间的关联。空间分析发现,疫情期间(2020 - 2021年)和之后(2022 - 2023年)存在更强的空间自相关性。最初,高死亡率集中在芝加哥市中心地区,疫情期间及之后扩展到了周边地区。GWPR模型显示,贫困、残疾和年轻成年居民在区域层面的比例增加,在大多数地区会导致与芬太尼相关的死亡率上升。我们的研究结果凸显了迫切需要通过量身定制的公共卫生干预措施来应对芬太尼相关过量用药不断变化的动态,这些措施要考虑到不同地区独特的社会经济决定因素。重要的是,采用综合方法来解决过量用药死亡率及其风险因素的差异对于缓解这一公共卫生危机至关重要。
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