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美国职业篮球联赛(NBA)中的投篮分布:我们见证了三分球何时开始流行吗?

Shot distribution in the NBA: did we see when 3-point shots became popular?

作者信息

Freitas Lucas

机构信息

Institute of Biology, Department of Genetics, Evolution, Microbiology and Immunology, State University of Campinas, Rua Bertrand Russel, s/n, 13083-970 Campinas, SP Brazil.

出版信息

Ger J Exerc Sport Res. 2021;51(2):237-240. doi: 10.1007/s12662-020-00690-7. Epub 2020 Dec 3.

DOI:10.1007/s12662-020-00690-7
PMID:40477085
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7712598/
Abstract

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the main basketball league around the globe with estimated revenue of approximately US$ 49.5 billion. A key change in NBA rules was the implementation of the three-point (3PT) line in the 1979-1980 season. Recently a popular conception claims that NBA is passing through a 3PT revolution; however, few works have discussed the evolution of shot patterns in the NBA. Thus, in this article NBA shot data per 100 possessions for each player from all seasons since implementation of the 3PT line were gathered to compare 2PT and 3PT shot statistics, aiming to understand how the shot pattern evolved throughout the NBA history. The results show that the main differences in shot patterns happened due to modifications in the 3PT line distance. The only exception was the statistically significant increase of 3PT attempts (3PTA) in the 1986-1987 season, a likely result of the success of the first 3PT contest in the previous season, which probably led most players to attempt this kind of shot. Also, the results did not show any season-by-season statistically significant change in shot patterns after the 3PT line distance was returned to its original distance in the 1997-1998 season. Thus, the actual popularity and numbers of 3PTA gradually increased throughout the seasons.

摘要

美国职业篮球联赛(NBA)是全球主要的篮球联赛,估计收入约为495亿美元。NBA规则的一个关键变化是在1979 - 1980赛季引入了三分线。最近有一种流行的观点认为NBA正在经历一场三分球革命;然而,很少有作品讨论过NBA投篮方式的演变。因此,在本文中,收集了自三分线引入以来每个赛季每位球员每100次控球的NBA投篮数据,以比较两分球和三分球的投篮统计数据,旨在了解投篮方式在NBA历史中是如何演变的。结果表明,投篮方式的主要差异是由于三分线距离的改变而产生的。唯一的例外是1986 - 1987赛季三分球出手次数(3PTA)有统计学意义的增加,这可能是上赛季首次三分球大赛成功的结果,这可能导致大多数球员尝试这种投篮方式。此外,在1997 - 1998赛季三分线距离恢复到原始距离后,结果并未显示出投篮方式在逐季上有任何统计学意义的变化。因此,三分球出手次数的实际受欢迎程度和数量在各个赛季中逐渐增加。

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本文引用的文献

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A decade of euroleague basketball: an analysis of trends and recent rule change effects.一个十年的欧洲篮球联赛:趋势分析和最近规则改变的影响。
J Hum Kinet. 2013 Oct 8;38:183-9. doi: 10.2478/hukin-2013-0058. eCollection 2013.
2
Further analysis of the matching law to describe two- and three-point shot allocation by professional basketball players.对描述职业篮球运动员两分球和三分球投篮分配的匹配定律的进一步分析。
J Appl Behav Anal. 2007 Summer;40(2):311-5. doi: 10.1901/jaba.2007.119-05.