Gries Thomas, Welfens Paul J J
Center for International Economics at Paderborn University, Chair for International Growth and Business Cycle Theory, Warburger Str. 100, 33098 Paderborn, Germany.
European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW) at the University of Wuppertal, Schumpeter School of Business & Economics, Rainer-Gruenter-Str. 21, D-42119 Wuppertal, Germany.
Int Econ Econ Policy. 2021;18(1):1-24. doi: 10.1007/s10368-021-00495-5. Epub 2021 Feb 19.
Vaccinations, lockdowns and testing strategies are three potential elements of an effective anti-coronavirus, and in particular Covid-19, health policy. The following analysis considers - within a simple model - the potentially crucial role of a Corona testing approach in combination with a quarantine approach which is shown herein to be a substitute for broad lockdown measures. The cost of lockdowns/shutdowns are rather high so that - beyond progress in terms of a broad vaccination program - a rational testing strategy should also be carefully considered. Testing has to be organized on the basis of an adequate testing infrastructure which could largely be implemented in firms, schools, universities and public administration settings. As regards the cost of a systematic broad Covid-19 testing strategy, these could come close to 0.5% of national income if there are no vaccinations. The Testing & Quarantine approach suggested here - with tests for symptomatic as well as asymptomatic people - is based on a random sampling and would require rather broad and frequent testing; possibly one test per person every 7-10 days. At the same time, one should consider that the cost of further lockdowns/shutdowns of a duration of 1 month could be very high, such that a standard cost benefit analysis supports the testing approach suggested herein. Also, an optimal policy mix could be designed where both vaccinations and testing play a crucial role. As of late January 2021, no further lockdowns in Germany and other OECD countries would be necessary if a broad testing infrastructure can be established rather quickly. This in turn will reinforce economic optimism and help to jumpstart economic growth in Europe, the US and Asia in a solid way. The basic logic of the testing approach pointed out here for industrialized countries could also be applied in developing countries. The approach presented is complementary to the IMF analysis of Cherif/Hasanov.
疫苗接种、封锁措施和检测策略是有效抗击冠状病毒，尤其是新冠病毒的卫生政策的三个潜在要素。以下分析在一个简单模型中考虑了新冠病毒检测方法与检疫方法相结合的潜在关键作用，本文证明这种结合可替代广泛的封锁措施。封锁/停工的成本相当高，因此，除了广泛疫苗接种计划取得进展之外，还应仔细考虑合理的检测策略。检测必须基于适当的检测基础设施来组织，这种基础设施在很大程度上可在公司、学校、大学和公共行政机构中实施。至于系统性广泛的新冠病毒检测策略的成本，如果没有疫苗接种，这些成本可能接近国民收入的0.5%。这里建议的检测与检疫方法——对有症状和无症状人群都进行检测——基于随机抽样，需要相当广泛和频繁的检测；可能每人每7 - 10天检测一次。同时，应该考虑到，再进行为期1个月的封锁/停工成本可能非常高，因此标准的成本效益分析支持本文建议的检测方法。此外，可以设计一种最优政策组合，使疫苗接种和检测都发挥关键作用。截至2021年1月底，如果能迅速建立广泛的检测基础设施，德国和其他经合组织国家就无需进一步实施封锁。这反过来将增强经济乐观情绪，并有助于切实推动欧洲、美国和亚洲的经济增长。这里为工业化国家指出的检测方法的基本逻辑也可应用于发展中国家。所提出的方法是对国际货币基金组织谢里夫/哈萨诺夫分析的补充。
