Arbel Ronen, Pliskin Joseph
Maximizing Health Outcomes Research Lab, Sapir College, Sderot 7956000, Israel.
Community Medical Services Division, Clalit Health Services, Tel-Aviv 6209804, Israel.
Vaccines (Basel). 2022 Aug 18;10(8):1347. doi: 10.3390/vaccines10081347.
Measures employed to combat COVID-19 included public lockdowns and vaccination campaigns. Israel's extensive public health system produced data demonstrating the real-world results of these measures. Our objective was to evaluate the health and economic outcomes of the measures to cope with COVID-19. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Our models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost of 36.4-38.6 billion NIS. The second lockdown prevented 1970 COVID-19 deaths and cost 18-21 billion NIS. These lifesaving effects were observed with a time lag from the declaration of lockdown. The primary vaccination campaign cost 1 billion NIS and prevented 4750 COVID-19 deaths. The first vaccination booster campaign prevented 650 COVID-19 deaths and cost 51.1 million NIS. Therefore, the cost per prevented COVID-19 death is 10-36 million NIS with a national lockdown versus 210,000 NIS in the primary vaccination campaign and 79,000 NIS in the first booster campaign. In conclusion, both lockdowns and vaccination campaigns effectively lower COVID-19 deaths, but the cost to avoid one COVID-19 death with effective vaccination is 50-466 times lower than with a lockdown.
为抗击新冠疫情所采取的措施包括全面封锁和疫苗接种运动。以色列广泛的公共卫生系统产生了相关数据，展示了这些措施在现实世界中的成效。我们的目标是评估应对新冠疫情措施的健康和经济成果。利用以色列卫生部公开的数据集来模拟以色列疫情的参数。牛津大学新冠疫情政府应对追踪器用于获取政府政策的量化数据。以色列经济数据取自中央统计局。我们的模型表明，第一次封锁以364亿至386亿新谢克尔的代价避免了1022例新冠死亡病例。第二次封锁避免了1970例新冠死亡病例，成本为180亿至210亿新谢克尔。这些挽救生命的效果在宣布封锁后有一定时间滞后才显现。初次疫苗接种运动花费10亿新谢克尔，避免了4750例新冠死亡病例。第一次疫苗加强针接种运动避免了650例新冠死亡病例，成本为5110万新谢克尔。因此，通过全国封锁避免一例新冠死亡病例的成本为1000万至3600万新谢克尔，而初次疫苗接种运动为21万新谢克尔，第一次加强针接种运动为7.9万新谢克尔。总之，封锁和疫苗接种运动都能有效降低新冠死亡病例，但通过有效疫苗接种避免一例新冠死亡病例的成本比封锁低50至466倍。
