Niu Yan, Luo Li, Rui Jia, Yang Shiting, Deng Bin, Zhao Zeyu, Lin Shengnan, Xu Jingwen, Zhu Yuanzhao, Wang Yao, Yang Meng, Liu Xingchun, Yang Tianlong, Liu Weikang, Li Peihua, Li Zhuoyang, Liu Chan, Huang Jiefeng, Chen Tianmu
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, 361102, China.
J Saf Sci Resil. 2021 Jun;2(2):63-68. doi: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.06.002. Epub 2021 Jun 11.
Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in mainland China from 2015 to 2020. The absolute difference (AD) and relative difference (RD) between the reported incidence in 2020, and simulated maximum, minimum, or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated. The incidence and of HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19, and in the second half of 2020, the incidence and of HFMD have rebounded. The results show that the total attack rate (TAR) in 2020 was lower than the maximum, minimum, and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities (except Changsha City). For the maximum, median, minimum fitted TAR, the range of RD (%) is 42·20-99·20%, 36·35-98·41% 48·35-96·23% (except Changsha City) respectively. The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情期间的防控措施可能限制了传染病的传播。本研究旨在分析COVID-19对中国手足口病（HFMD）传播的影响。建立了一个数学模型，以拟合中国大陆六个选定城市2015年至2020年报告的手足口病数据。计算了2020年报告发病率与2015 - 2019年手足口病模拟最大、最小或中位数发病率之间的绝对差（AD）和相对差（RD）。自COVID-19疫情爆发以来，六个选定城市的手足口病发病率和 均有所下降，2020年下半年，手足口病发病率和 出现反弹。结果显示，2020年的总发病率（TAR）低于六个选定城市（长沙市除外）前几年拟合的最大、最小和中位数TAR。对于拟合的最大、中位数、最小TAR，RD（%）范围分别为42·20 - 99·20%、36·35 - 98·41%、48·35 - 96·23%（长沙市除外）。COVID-19的防控措施对遏制手足口病传播做出了显著贡献。 （注：原文中“发病率和 ”表述不完整，翻译时保留原文状态）
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