Berger Allen N, Demirgüç-Kunt Asli
University of South Carolina, Center for Financial Institutions at the Darla Moore School of Business, Wharton Financial Institutions Center, European Banking Center, USA.
World Bank, USA.
J Financ Stab. 2021 Dec;57:100939. doi: 10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100939. Epub 2021 Sep 23.
Despite the devastating worldwide human and economic tolls of the COVID-19 crisis, it has created some positive economic and financial surprises and opportunities for research. This paper highlights two such favorable surprises - the shortest U.S. recession on record and the avoidance of any banking crisis - and a number of research opportunities. The paper ties the "economic surprise" of the short recession to the speed and size of U.S. stimulus programs during COVID-19 - faster and larger than for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We connect the "financial surprise" of the resilient banking sector to prudential policies put in place during and after the GFC that fortified U.S. banks prior to COVID-19. These twin "surprises" are also mutually reinforcing - if either the economy or banking system had failed, so would the other. The paper also reviews extant COVID-19 banking research and suggest paths for future research. It recommends that particular attention be paid to research outside of the U.S. - where fewer favorable "surprises" may be present - as the best way to advance knowledge in this area.
尽管新冠疫情危机给全球带来了毁灭性的人员伤亡和经济损失，但它也带来了一些积极的经济和金融惊喜以及研究机会。本文重点介绍了两个这样的利好惊喜——有记录以来美国最短的衰退期以及避免了任何银行业危机——以及一些研究机会。本文将短期衰退的“经济惊喜”与新冠疫情期间美国刺激计划的速度和规模联系起来——比全球金融危机（GFC）期间更快、规模更大。我们将银行业韧性的“金融惊喜”与全球金融危机期间及之后实施的审慎政策联系起来，这些政策在新冠疫情之前强化了美国银行。这两个“惊喜”也是相互促进的——如果经济或银行系统有一个失败了，另一个也会失败。本文还回顾了现有的新冠疫情银行业研究，并提出了未来研究的方向。它建议特别关注美国以外的研究——那里可能较少出现利好“惊喜”——这是推进该领域知识的最佳途径。
