Man Nicola, Akhurst Jane, Price Olivia, Chrzanowska Agata, Sutherland Rachel, Dietze Paul M, Bruno Raimondo, Degenhardt Louisa, Yuen Wing See, Moran Lauren, Tierney Louise, Peacock Amy
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Tobacco, Alcohol & Other Drugs Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2025 Jul;44(5):1419-1429. doi: 10.1111/dar.14088. Epub 2025 Jun 8.
We aimed to determine whether the trend in the rate of drug-induced hospitalisations and deaths changed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.
Data comprised crude monthly rates (per 1,000,000 persons) of hospitalisations and deaths directly attributable to illicit drugs, prescription medicines, or medicines available without a prescription, nationally from 2011 to 2021. Observed rates during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) were compared with their counterfactual forecast in an ARIMA model, overall and disaggregated by sex, age and drug involved.
Observed rates of drug-induced hospitalisation and death, overall and by sex, were not significantly different from the forecasted rates. The rates of drug-induced death among people aged 35-54 and 55+ years were lower than forecasted by 2.1 [95% prediction interval = -3.8, -0.4] and 0.7 [-1.3, -0.1] deaths per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rates of drug-induced hospitalisation and death involving heroin were lower than forecasted by 1.5 [-2.4, -0.7] and 1.0 [-1.3, -0.6] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively, as were those involving amphetamine-type stimulants by 12.4 [-21.4, -0.8] and 0.5 [-0.7, -0.2] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rate of cannabinoid-induced hospitalisations was higher than forecasted by 3.8 [0.8, 6.8] hospitalisations per 1,000,000 persons per month.
We found no evidence of an overall difference in the rate of drug-induced harms during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the forecasted trend. However, there were differences by drug involved, which may be explained by drug market disruptions and changes in drug use during the pandemic.
我们旨在确定在澳大利亚新冠疫情的第一年，药物导致的住院率和死亡率趋势是否发生了变化。
数据包括2011年至2021年全国范围内因非法药物、处方药或非处方可得药物直接导致的住院率和死亡率（每100万人的粗月率）。将新冠疫情期间（2020 - 2021年）观察到的比率与其在自回归整合移动平均（ARIMA）模型中的反事实预测进行比较，整体以及按性别、年龄和涉及药物进行分类比较。
总体以及按性别划分的药物导致的住院率和死亡率观察值与预测值无显著差异。35 - 54岁和55岁及以上人群中药物导致的死亡率分别比预测值低2.1[95%预测区间 = -3.8, -0.4]和0.7[-1.3, -0.1]人/每100万人每月。涉及海洛因的药物导致的住院率和死亡率分别比预测值低1.5[-2.4, -0.7]和1.0[-1.3, -0.6]人/每100万人每月，涉及苯丙胺类兴奋剂的分别低12.4[-21.4, -0.8]和0.5[-0.7, -0.2]人/每100万人每月。大麻素导致的住院率比预测值高3.8[0.8, 6.8]人/每100万人每月。
我们没有发现证据表明新冠疫情期间药物导致的伤害率与预测趋势相比存在总体差异。然而，不同药物存在差异，这可能由疫情期间药物市场的扰乱和药物使用的变化来解释。
