Yuen Wing See, Man Nicola, Livingston Michael, Chrzanowska Agata, Gilmore William, Tierney Louise, Moran Lauren, Peacock Amy
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
National Drug Research Institute, enAble Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2025 Jun 29. doi: 10.1111/dar.14097.
Since the onset of COVID-19, alcohol-related harm has increased in regions such as the United States and the United Kingdom. We examined whether alcohol-related harm increased with the pandemic in Australia, and whether the impact varied across sex, age and type of alcohol diagnosis.
Monthly rates of alcohol-induced hospitalisations and deaths nationally from July 2016 until February 2020 were modelled in an autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the counterfactual trend was forecasted until April 2021. We estimated the overall excess in average monthly numbers of alcohol-induced hospitalisations and deaths by sex, age and diagnosis.
We found excess monthly alcohol-induced hospitalisations overall (681 [95% prediction interval 481-872]), among males (437 [343-528]), females (208 [50-355]), 15- to 34-year-olds (144 [57-226]), 35- to 54-year-olds (331 [2-636]), for cardiovascular, digestive and endocrine diseases (164 [108-223]) and for neuropsychiatric conditions (483 [236-721]). Excess monthly alcohol-induced deaths were found overall (13 [4-21]), among males (10 [0-19]), females (4 [1-7]), 35- to 54-year-olds (8 [5-11]) and for cardiovascular, digestive and endocrine diseases (10 [2-18]) and poisonings (2 [0-4]).
Increased alcohol-induced hospitalisations and deaths across Australia indicate a need to continue to monitor the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and develop strategies to minimise further harm among those currently affected and in the event of future public health crises.
自新冠疫情爆发以来，美国和英国等地区与酒精相关的危害有所增加。我们研究了澳大利亚与酒精相关的危害是否随着疫情而增加，以及这种影响在性别、年龄和酒精诊断类型方面是否存在差异。
采用自回归积分滑动平均分析对2016年7月至2020年2月期间全国每月酒精导致的住院率和死亡率进行建模，并预测了到2021年4月的反事实趋势。我们按性别、年龄和诊断类型估计了每月酒精导致的住院和死亡平均数量的总体超额数。
我们发现总体上每月酒精导致的住院人数超额（681例[95%预测区间481 - 872例]），男性中（437例[343 - 528例]），女性中（208例[50 - 355例]），15至34岁人群中（144例[57 - 226例]），35至54岁人群中（331例[2 - 636例]），心血管、消化和内分泌疾病患者中（164例[108 - 223例]）以及神经精神疾病患者中（483例[236 - 721例]）。总体上每月酒精导致的死亡人数超额（13例[4 - 21例]），男性中（10例[0 - 19例]），女性中（4例[1 - 7例]），35至54岁人群中（8例[5 - 11例]），心血管、消化和内分泌疾病患者中（10例[2 - 18例]）以及中毒患者中（2例[0 - 4例]）。
澳大利亚全国范围内酒精导致的住院和死亡人数增加，表明有必要继续监测新冠疫情的长期影响，并制定策略，以尽量减少对当前受影响人群以及未来公共卫生危机发生时的进一步危害。
