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提高基于层次分析法的专家判断的一致性:一种新方法及其在交互式工具中的实现。

Enhancing consistency of AHP-based expert judgements: A new approach and its implementation in an interactive tool.

作者信息

Frish Shimon, Talmor Irit, Hadar Omer, Shoshany Maxim, Shapira Aviad

机构信息

Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.

School of Management, Western Galilee College, Akko, Israel.

出版信息

MethodsX. 2025 May 1;14:103341. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2025.103341. eCollection 2025 Jun.

DOI:10.1016/j.mex.2025.103341
PMID:40488171
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12144522/
Abstract

The analytic hierarchy process is an effective method for simplifying complex decision-making processes involving multiple criteria. Experts convey their criteria evaluations through pairwise comparisons that ultimately result in a consistency check of the preferences obtained. However, achieving a predetermined consistency ratio () threshold is challenging for such problems, which may compromise the reliability of expert evaluations. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel interactive software tool designed to enhance the logical coherence of expert judgments during decision-making processes. Utilizing a sophisticated greedy algorithm, which is interactively run vis-à-vis the experts in real time, the tool detects inconsistencies and suggests minor adjustments to improve the while preserving the integrity of the original evaluations. In a case study of border delineation, in which 21 senior officials involved in international border negotiations evaluated six criteria, the tool successfully reduced the values to the minimum required, significantly improving the consistency and reliability of the evaluations. The proposed tool has broad potential applications in various complex decision-making scenarios. In future developments, the tool could also be adapted to incorporate clustering techniques for managing complex criteria sets, or extended to support group decision making by assessing consensus levels and recommending minimal adjustments.•AHP-based pairwise comparisons of criteria by experts are recorded in an reiprocal preference matrix whose eigenvalu is used to compute the consistency ratio (CR) of the resulting priority vector.•An iterative greedy algorithm developed to enhance the consistency of the solution in case CR>10% enforces minimal intervention by limiting the adjustment to single-step modifications on unaltered pairwise comparisons only.•The algorithm is implemented in an interactive, user-friendly software tool, ensuring transparency and expert engagement through real-time, traceable consistency refinement.

摘要

层次分析法是一种用于简化涉及多标准的复杂决策过程的有效方法。专家通过成对比较来传达他们对标准的评估,最终对获得的偏好进行一致性检查。然而,对于此类问题,要达到预定的一致性比率()阈值具有挑战性,这可能会损害专家评估的可靠性。为了解决这个问题,本文提出了一种新颖的交互式软件工具,旨在提高决策过程中专家判断的逻辑连贯性。该工具利用一种复杂的贪婪算法,该算法与专家实时交互运行,检测不一致之处,并建议进行微小调整以改善,同时保持原始评估的完整性。在一个边界划定的案例研究中,21名参与国际边界谈判的高级官员对六个标准进行了评估,该工具成功地将值降低到了所需的最小值,显著提高了评估的一致性和可靠性。所提出的工具在各种复杂的决策场景中具有广泛的潜在应用。在未来的发展中,该工具还可以进行调整,以纳入聚类技术来管理复杂的标准集,或者扩展以通过评估共识水平和建议最小调整来支持群体决策。•专家对标准的基于层次分析法的成对比较记录在一个互反偏好矩阵中,其特征值用于计算所得优先向量的一致性比率(CR)。•开发了一种迭代贪婪算法,以在CR>10%的情况下提高解决方案的一致性,通过将调整限制为仅对未改变的成对比较进行单步修改来实施最小干预。•该算法在一个交互式、用户友好的软件工具中实现,通过实时、可追溯的一致性改进确保透明度和专家参与。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/570a1229ff10/gr5.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/205362440a94/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/df7ebecf6f9a/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/570a1229ff10/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/3b9f268788bd/ga1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/b7c411e57f68/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/55ced259afd5/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/205362440a94/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/df7ebecf6f9a/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0f2e/12144522/570a1229ff10/gr5.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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AHP-express: A simplified version of the analytical hierarchy process method.AHP-express:层次分析法的简化版本。
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