Analysis of the mortality trends of laryngeal cancer attributable to smoking worldwide from 1990 to 2021 and projections up to 2036.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to examine the global trends in the disease burden of laryngeal cancer (LC) attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, including mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and to predict trends for 2036.

METHODS

Data on LC attributable to smoking were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) to evaluate trends in LC attributable to smoking. Additionally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast future disease burden over the next 15 years.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of LC attributable to smoking decreased from 1.61 to 0.89 per 100,000 with an AAPC of -1.87%. The male mortality rate is significantly higher than that of females. In 2021, specific regions within the Balkans, the Middle East, and South Asia demonstrated notably higher compared to other global regions. According to the ARIMA model, the ASMR for LC attributable to smoking among males is projected to decline gradually from 2022 to 2036, while the decline in females is more gradual.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2021, the global mortality rate of LC attributable to smoking has declined, indicating a relative reduction in disease burden. However, the burden remains disproportionately higher among older adults, with males at a greater risk of mortality than females. Although the disease burden from LC attributable to smoking is expected to decline gradually over the next 15 years, it remains imperative to enhance smoking cessation efforts to further alleviate the disease burden.