随机獾捕杀试验——广泛捕杀獾对牛结核病没有影响：对米尔斯、伍德罗夫和唐纳利（2024年a，2024年b）的评论
Randomised Badger Culling Trial-no effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle: comment on Mills, Woodroffe and Donnelly (2024a, 2024b).
作者信息
Torgerson Paul R, Hartnack Sonja, Rasmussen Philip, Lewis Fraser I, O'Donnell Peter, Langton Thomas E S
机构信息
Veterinary Epidemiology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
出版信息
R Soc Open Sci. 2025 Jun 11;12(6):241609. doi: 10.1098/rsos.241609. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Substantial problems remain with the Mills . (Mills CL, Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA. 2024 , 240385. (doi:10.1098/rsos.240385) and Mills CL, Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA. 2024 , 240386. (doi:10.1098/rsos.240386)) re-evaluations of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) data. These include: (i) analysis of counts rather than rates; (ii) overfitting; (iii) modelling of 'confirmed' herd breakdowns rather than total herd breakdowns; and (iv) errors in the Bayesian analysis of the data. More plausible approaches to RBCT data analysis, including analysis of total breakdown incidence, strongly suggest that there is no effect of proactive badger culling on the herd incidence of bovine tuberculosis, either within cull areas or in neighbouring areas.
米尔斯等人（米尔斯CL、伍德罗夫R、唐纳利CA。2024年，240385。（doi:10.1098/rsos.240385）以及米尔斯CL、伍德罗夫R、唐纳利CA。2024年，240386。（doi:10.1098/rsos.240386））对随机獾捕杀试验（RBCT）数据的重新评估仍存在重大问题。这些问题包括：（i）分析的是计数而非比率；（ii）过度拟合；（iii）对“确诊”畜群疫情爆发而非总畜群疫情爆发进行建模；以及（iv）数据贝叶斯分析中的错误。对RBCT数据分析更合理的方法，包括对总疫情发病率的分析，强烈表明，无论是在捕杀区域内还是在邻近区域，主动捕杀獾对牛结核病的畜群发病率没有影响。
Zotero 插件