Chen Yongzhuang, Wei Xianjie, Sun Xiaoyun, Mo Xiaoqiao, Tu Jiayuan, Xie Tian
Department of Anesthesiology, Yancheng No.1 People's Hospital, Yancheng, Jiangsu, People's Republic of China.
Department of Orthopedics, Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, School of Clinical Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
BMJ Open. 2025 Jun 12;15(6):e100417. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-100417.
OBJECTIVES: To establish a practical tool for the prediction of mortality in polytrauma patients. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from a public database. SETTING: A tertiary hospital in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: 2406 polytrauma patients were enrolled in this study, and the mean age was 44.4±19.9 years with 74.8% men. INTERVENTIONS: No. OUTCOME MEASURES: Logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between early deaths and variables. Nomogram model was established based on predictive factors. Model effectiveness was assessed by its discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. Causal mediation analysis was used to explore the relationships among risk factors. RESULTS: Independent predictive variables analysed by logistic regression were: age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), base excess (BE) and serum lactate. A nomogram model was established based on those risk factors, and the area under the curve of the nomogram for early death was 0.85, which was better than existing traumatic scorings. Besides, calibration plots and decision curve analysis demonstrated better performance than traumatic scorings with better internal validation. The effect of GCS on early death partly depended on BE and lactate. CONCLUSION: Our study found that early mortality was associated with age, GCS, BE and serum lactate on admission, and lactate was more important in early death. A simple prediction model of early mortality in polytrauma patients was developed with accessible parameters assessed on admission.
目的:建立一种预测多发伤患者死亡率的实用工具。 设计:对公共数据库中的数据进行二次分析。 地点:瑞士的一家三级医院。 参与者:本研究纳入了2406例多发伤患者,平均年龄为44.4±19.9岁,男性占74.8%。 干预措施:无。 观察指标:进行逻辑回归分析以探讨早期死亡与变量之间的关系。基于预测因素建立列线图模型。通过判别、校准和决策曲线分析评估模型有效性。采用因果中介分析探讨危险因素之间的关系。 结果:逻辑回归分析得出的独立预测变量为:年龄、格拉斯哥昏迷量表(GCS)、碱剩余(BE)和血清乳酸。基于这些危险因素建立了列线图模型,早期死亡列线图的曲线下面积为0.85,优于现有的创伤评分。此外,校准图和决策曲线分析显示其性能优于创伤评分,具有更好的内部验证。GCS对早期死亡的影响部分取决于BE和乳酸。 结论:我们的研究发现,早期死亡率与入院时的年龄、GCS、BE和血清乳酸有关,且乳酸在早期死亡中更为重要。利用入院时评估的可获取参数,开发了一种简单的多发伤患者早期死亡率预测模型。
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