Zhang Weitao, Li Jingwei
School of Architecture and Design, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 May 30;13:1588004. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1588004. eCollection 2025.
BACKGROUND: From coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to other human-to-human infectious diseases, the integrative development of rail transport and land use, which is dominated by the theory of the transport-land use feedback cycle, concentrates citizens' large-scale flow and gathering within the rail station areas (RSAs). This makes RSAs the potential "focal point" of epidemic spread in cities. This study examined the effect of RSA coverage on epidemic transmission in rail-supportive city blocks and further revealed the internal mechanism and potential factors behind the surface effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: A quantitative empirical analysis was conducted using a typical COVID-19 case in Beijing, China, in 2020, and the statistical analysis method of "a mediating model with a moderating effect" was used, resulting in the following multilayered outcomes: (1) The higher the coverage, the lower the risk, overall, which is different from the general empiricism-based judgment. (2) Behind the total effect, RSA coverage does not directly affect epidemic transmission in blocks, as expected because of the focal point effect on epidemic occurrence possibility. Instead, RSA coverage has a mediating effect on epidemic vulnerability by affecting the residential population size of blocks. (3) There is a strengthening effect on RSA coverage affecting the population size as RSA transport and service levels increase. CONCLUSION: These findings have several implications. First, the implementation of contemporary local nonpharmaceutical interventions can be considered to reduce the focal point effect of RSAs and decrease the infectious sensitivity of the block population. Second, the transport-land use integration plays a key role behind the mediating and moderating effects by shaping resident land use and population distribution. Third, the blocks' primary hospitals, advanced hospitals, municipal roads, and elastic facilities probably provide potential support in reducing blocks' epidemic risk.
背景:从冠状病毒病2019(COVID - 19)到其他人际传染病,以交通 - 土地利用反馈循环理论为主导的铁路运输与土地利用的一体化发展,使城市居民的大规模流动和聚集集中在铁路站区(RSAs)。这使得铁路站区成为城市中疫情传播的潜在“焦点”。本研究考察了铁路站区覆盖范围对铁路支撑型城市街区疫情传播的影响,并进一步揭示了这种表面效应背后的内在机制和潜在因素。 方法与结果:利用2020年中国北京一个典型的COVID - 19病例进行了定量实证分析,并采用“具有调节效应的中介模型”的统计分析方法,得出以下多层次结果:(1)总体而言,覆盖范围越高,风险越低,这与基于一般经验主义的判断不同。(2)在总效应背后,铁路站区覆盖范围并非如预期那样因对疫情发生可能性的焦点效应而直接影响街区内的疫情传播。相反,铁路站区覆盖范围通过影响街区常住人口规模对疫情脆弱性具有中介作用。(3)随着铁路站区交通和服务水平的提高,铁路站区覆盖范围对人口规模的影响存在强化效应。 结论:这些发现具有若干启示。首先,可以考虑实施当代地方非药物干预措施,以降低铁路站区的焦点效应,降低街区人群的感染敏感性。其次,交通 - 土地利用一体化通过塑造居民土地利用和人口分布在中介和调节效应背后发挥关键作用。第三,街区的基层医院、高级医院、市政道路和弹性设施可能在降低街区疫情风险方面提供潜在支持。
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