Wu Huiqiang, Cai Zhiyin, Liu Wanyi, Wang Zechuan, Qiu Baoying, Liu Weihui, Zhuang Weihuang
The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, Fujian Province, China.
The Second Clinical Medical College, Fujian Medical University, Fujian, China.
Cancer Med. 2025 Jun;14(12):e70999. doi: 10.1002/cam4.70999.
The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.
The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.
Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.
本研究的目的是分析联合国安理会五个常任理事国（中国、美利坚合众国、俄罗斯联邦、英国和法国）的多发性骨髓瘤（MM）负担趋势，以了解国家间差异及影响因素。
利用《2021年全球疾病负担研究》分析1990年至2021年MM的发病率和死亡率趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估各国之间的差异，同时采用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来15年的发展趋势。
研究发现，中国和俄罗斯联邦的MM负担持续增加，尤其是老年人群体增加显著。在美国，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）呈下降趋势，反映出疾病负担减轻。在英国和法国，ASIR总体上升，但ASDR保持稳定。通过年龄-时期-队列分析发现，MM负担与年龄、时期效应和出生队列显著相关。ARIMA模型预测表明，中国和俄罗斯联邦的ASIR呈上升趋势，ASDR保持稳定，而在英国、法国和美国，ASIR和ASDR总体趋于稳定。
五个国家的MM负担存在显著差异。中国和俄罗斯联邦面临着不断增加的MM负担，尤其是老年人群体，而美国、英国和法国通过早期筛查和治疗取得了进展。该研究建议关注老年人群，促进早期诊断和个性化治疗，并解决生活方式和环境因素。未来的研究应考察各国的风险因素，为公共卫生政策提供依据。
