Wei Baixing, Zhang Jie, Cheng Yuanpei, Wu Han
Department of Orthopedics, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jun 2;13:1583523. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1583523. eCollection 2025.
Traumatic amputations are serious public health problems with enormous health and economic costs, but to date there has been little research on the epidemiology of traumatic amputations. We aimed to comprehensively analyze the global burden of disease due to traumatic amputations during 1990-2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.
Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data were used to demonstrate the burden of traumatic amputations in different populations, including incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs). In-depth analyses and projections were performed using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model analysis, decomposition analysis, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.
There was an increase in the number of traumatic amputations globally in 2021 compared to 1990. However, the change in age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 declined significantly. The association between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and the burden of amputations in 2021 was not linear. Results of the APC analysis indicated that the burden was lower in the later-born cohort and showed an overall decreasing trend over time. The results of the decomposition analyses indicated that in most cases age change suppressed incidence but promoted increases in prevalence and YLDs. Population changes increased the burden of amputations, while epidemiologic changes did the opposite. The burden was projected to trend downward globally and in most regions over the next 15 years. Finally, mechanical forces and falls were the two most prominent factors.
The global burden of traumatic amputations increased in number from 1990 to 2021, but the age-standardized rate declined significantly and was expected to continue to decline in the future. Population growth is now the main cause of the burden, and more attention needs to be paid to men, youth and the older adult.
创伤性截肢是严重的公共卫生问题，会带来巨大的健康和经济成本，但迄今为止，关于创伤性截肢的流行病学研究较少。我们旨在全面分析1990年至2021年期间创伤性截肢导致的全球疾病负担，并预测未来15年的趋势。
使用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据来展示不同人群中创伤性截肢的负担，包括发病率、患病率和残疾生存年数（YLDs）。使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析、分解分析和自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行深入分析和预测。
与1990年相比，2021年全球创伤性截肢的数量有所增加。然而，1990年至2021年年龄标准化率的变化显著下降。2021年社会人口指数（SDI）与截肢负担之间的关联并非线性。APC分析结果表明，后出生队列的负担较低，且总体呈下降趋势。分解分析结果表明，在大多数情况下，年龄变化抑制了发病率，但促进了患病率和YLDs的增加。人口变化增加了截肢负担，而流行病学变化则相反。预计在未来15年全球和大多数地区的负担将呈下降趋势。最后，机械力和跌倒这两个因素最为突出。
1990年至2021年期间，全球创伤性截肢的负担在数量上有所增加，但年龄标准化率显著下降，预计未来还将继续下降。人口增长现在是负担的主要原因，需要更多地关注男性、青年和老年人。
