Son Seokmin, Xu Chaoran, Davlasheridze Meri, Ross Ashley D, Bricker Jeremy D
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
National Engineering Research Center of Port Hydraulic Construction Technology, Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering, M.O.T., Tianjin, China.
Risk Anal. 2025 Jun 18. doi: 10.1111/risa.70060.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ike in 2008 in the United States, the "Ike Dike" was proposed as a coastal barrier system, featuring floodgates, to protect the Houston-Galveston area (HGA) from future storm surges. Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.
2008年美国艾克飓风过后，有人提议建造“艾克堤坝”作为一种带有水闸的沿海屏障系统，以保护休斯顿-加尔维斯顿地区（HGA）免受未来风暴潮的侵袭。鉴于其成本高昂，艾克堤坝的可行性和有效性一直是研究的课题。在本研究中，我们通过使用一组模型模拟风暴潮，评估了当前和未来气候条件下的这些方面。利用代尔夫特3D灵活网格套件来模拟飓风驱动的水动力和波浪运动，风场和压力场由荷兰模型进行空间化处理。这些模型根据艾克飓风的数据进行了验证，并用于模拟从几个大气环流模型降尺度得到的合成飓风路径，且基于不同的海平面上升预测，分别模拟了有和没有艾克堤坝的情况。为每次模拟生成了洪水地图，并使用年最大洪水地图预测了特定年超越概率下的概率性洪水深度。将建筑物损坏曲线应用于HGA的住宅物业，以计算每个超越概率下的洪水损失，从而得出预期年损失的估计值，作为量化洪水风险的一种度量。我们的研究结果表明，艾克堤坝显著降低了HGA的风暴潮风险，证明了其可行性和有效性。我们还发现，洪水风险估计对飓风强度、损坏曲线的选择以及分析中包含的物业敏感，这表明在未来的研究中需要仔细考虑。
