Yu W Y, Li X, Zhu J, Ding Y M, Tao H Q, Du L B
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China Department of Cancer Prevention, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou Institute of Medicine (HIM), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou 310022, China.
Department of Cancer Prevention, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou Institute of Medicine (HIM), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou 310022, China.
Zhonghua Zhong Liu Za Zhi. 2025 Jun 23;47(6):468-476. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20240831-00376.
To analyze the epidemiological patterns and temporal trends of gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China and globally, and to formulate evidence-based prevention strategies. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, we evaluated gastric cancer incidence and mortality patterns stratified by sex, age group, geographic region and human development index (HDI). Simple linear regression and Spearman's correlation analysis assessed associations between HDI and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) or age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Temporal trends from 2002 to 2020 were described in selected regions, and projections of global gastric cancer burden by 2050 were estimated. In 2022, there were estimated 969 000 new gastric cases and 660 000 deaths worldwide. The burden was higher in men than in women, with incidence peaking at ages 65-69 and mortality at 70-74. ASIR was weakly correlated with HDI (=0.261, ＜0.001), while no significant association was found between HDI and ASMR (=-0.005, =0.947). China accounted for 359 000 new cases and 260 000 deaths, representing 37.0% and 39.4% of the global totals, respectively. Both ASIR (13.7/10) and ASMR (9.4/10) in China exceeded the global averages (9.2/10 and 6.1/10, respectively). Although the overall global burden is decreasing, absolute case numbers are projected to increase by 84.1% (1.78 million cases) and deaths by 91.2% (1.26 million cases) by 2050. High-HDI regions will bear greater absolute burdens, whereas low-HDI regions face steeper relative increases. In China, new cases and deaths are projected to reach 607 000 and 504 000 by 2050, rising by 69.1% and 93.8%, respectively. Despite a declining global trend, the burden of gastric cancer remains substantial, with notable disparities across regions, sex and age groups. Targeted strategies are urgently needed, particularly in East Asia, among males, and older populations, to mitigate the future burden.
分析中国及全球胃癌发病率和死亡率的流行病学模式及时间趋势，并制定基于证据的预防策略。基于全球癌症数据库（GLOBOCAN）2022的数据，我们评估了按性别、年龄组、地理区域和人类发展指数（HDI）分层的胃癌发病率和死亡率模式。简单线性回归和Spearman相关性分析评估了HDI与年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）或年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）之间的关联。描述了选定区域2002年至2020年的时间趋势，并估计了到2050年全球胃癌负担的预测情况。2022年，全球估计有96.9万例新胃癌病例和66万例死亡。男性的负担高于女性，发病率在65 - 69岁达到峰值，死亡率在70 - 74岁达到峰值。ASIR与HDI呈弱相关（=0.261，＜0.001），而HDI与ASMR之间未发现显著关联（=-0.005，=0.947）。中国有35.9万例新病例和26万例死亡，分别占全球总数的37.0%和39.4%。中国的ASIR（13.7/10万）和ASMR（9.4/10万）均超过全球平均水平（分别为9.2/10万和6.1/10万）。尽管全球总体负担在下降，但预计到2050年，绝对病例数将增加84.1%（178万例），死亡数将增加91.2%（126万例）。高HDI地区将承担更大的绝对负担，而低HDI地区面临更陡峭的相对增长。在中国，预计到2050年新病例和死亡数将分别达到60.7万例和50.4万例，分别增长69.1%和93.8%。尽管全球趋势呈下降，但胃癌负担仍然很重，不同地区、性别和年龄组之间存在显著差异。迫切需要有针对性的策略，特别是在东亚、男性和老年人群中，以减轻未来的负担。
