Ye Jishi, Chen Jingli, Ding Huang, Xia Zhongyuan, Wang Juan, Jia Yifan
Department of Pain, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Department of Anesthesiology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Front Nutr. 2025 Jun 6;12:1568015. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1568015. eCollection 2025.
Low back pain (LBP) is a widely disease burden that transcends geographical, cultural, and demographic boundaries, with high body mass index (BMI) recognized as one of its well-established risk factors.
Data on LBP attributed to high BMI were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021 online database. To evaluate the magnitude and direction of the trend in DALYs, a Joinpoint Regression Analysis (JRA) was performed. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was utilized to forecast future trends in DALYs indicators associated with LBP for the subsequent 15 years.
The impact of high BMI on LBP has shown a progressive increase annually from 1990 to 2021, with a more pronounced disease burden observed in regions with higher economic status. Within areas of comparable economic levels, older age correlates with a heightened burden of disease, and females experience a relatively greater disease burden compared to males. Projections based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model indicate that the global burden of disease is predicted to continue its upward trajectory over the next 15 years.
Higher levels of BMI, along with age and gender, are associated with an increased burden of LBP. The global burden of LBP attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue rising over the next 15 years. This study offers additional evidence to support the development and implementation of policies and strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating future increases in the burden of LBP.
腰痛（LBP）是一种广泛存在的疾病负担，跨越地理、文化和人口界限，高体重指数（BMI）被认为是其公认的风险因素之一。
从《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》在线数据库中检索归因于高BMI的腰痛数据。为评估伤残调整生命年（DALYs）趋势的幅度和方向，进行了Joinpoint回归分析（JRA）。此外，利用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来15年与腰痛相关的DALYs指标的趋势。
从1990年到2021年，高BMI对腰痛的影响呈逐年递增趋势，在经济地位较高的地区观察到更明显的疾病负担。在经济水平相当的地区，年龄越大，疾病负担越高，女性比男性经历的疾病负担相对更大。基于自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型的预测表明，预计未来15年全球疾病负担将继续上升。
较高的BMI水平以及年龄和性别与腰痛负担增加有关。预计未来15年，归因于高BMI的全球腰痛负担将继续上升。本研究提供了额外证据，以支持制定和实施旨在预防和减轻未来腰痛负担增加的政策和策略。
