Deforestation driven by illegal and informal gold mining in the southern Peruvian Amazon: a predictive land use analysis over the next 50 years.

The Amazon is recognized not only for its vast biodiversity and territorial extent but also for the significant mineral riches it harbors. This potential has intensified small-scale illegal and informal gold mining, a practice often employed without adequate measures to mitigate environmental impacts. This study aims to analyze and predict changes in forest cover resulting from illegal and informal mining in the area known as La Pampa, in Madre de Dios region, one of the world's most biodiverse regions, located in the southern part of the Peruvian Amazon. Historical land use land cover data available on the MapBiomas Peru platform, as well as information on physical characteristics of the terrain, such as hydrography, slope, and road network, were used. Land use land cover prediction was performed using artificial neural networks simulation algorithms available in the MOLUSCE plugin of the QGIS software. Historical data shows an exponential increase in forest loss caused by illegal and informal mining since 1985, reaching an area of 521.65 km by 2020. Predictions indicate that in the next 50 years, the deforested area will be almost three times larger than in the last 35 years, totaling 1348.51 km in 2070. While degradation may also occur, this study focuses specifically on deforestation, which involves complete removal of tree cover. These findings underscore the urgent need for decisive governance interventions and integrated conservation policies to prevent the continued degradation of one of the world's most biodiverse forest frontiers.