Associations Between Cancer and Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate temporal associations of cancer with subsequent incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and temporal associations of AF with subsequent incident cancer, within 3, 3 to 12, and >12 months after index diagnosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 13,748 community-dwelling adults (mean age, 54 years) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study without cancer or AF histories at baseline (follow-up between January 1, 1987, and December 31, 2019). Atrial fibrillation was ascertained from electrocardiograms at study visits and health records. Cancer was ascertained via linkage with state registries and health records. We estimated associations of cancer with AF risk and AF with cancer risk by time since diagnosis using Cox regression, adjusting for shared risk factors and other cardiovascular diseases.

RESULTS

In 3909 adults, cancer was diagnosed before AF. Atrial fibrillation risk was the highest within 3 months after cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 11.71; 95% CI, 9.52-14.41), followed by 3 to 12 months (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.54-2.80) and >12 months (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.29-1.64). In 1973 adults, AF was diagnosed before cancer. Cancer risk was the highest within 3 months of AF diagnosis (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.47-3.41), followed by 3 to 12 months (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.91-1.80) and >12 months (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.91-1.29).

CONCLUSION

In adult cancer patients, AF risk is the highest within 3 months after diagnosis and remains significantly elevated throughout survivorship but could be due to detection bias. Cancer risk is strongest within 3 months of AF diagnosis but significantly attenuated over time, suggesting detection bias and reverse causation.