Yan Mengshi, Shan Wenxi, Zhang Tao, Li Xinyao, Wang Lili, Tian Xuwen, Zeng Jiankai, Xiao Jianhua, Wang Haoran
Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
Pest Manag Sci. 2025 Jun 26. doi: 10.1002/ps.70002.
Malaria, transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a major global health threat. While China achieved malaria-free certification in 2021, the country remains vulnerable to imported cases, a risk exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Accurate predictions of malaria vector distributions are essential for effective prevention and management.
We employed the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model to assess the current distribution of Anopheles sinensis and Anopheles lesteri in China, incorporating recent occurrence data alongside climatic, soil, human activity, and vegetation variables. The model projected future distribution patterns under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for the periods 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. An. sinensis is currently widespread in southern, eastern, and central China, primarily influenced by the human footprint and precipitation during the driest month. An. lesteri is more confined to southern and central regions, largely shaped by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and human footprint. Both species are projected to shift northward under future climate scenarios. By 2081-2100, under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, the potential suitability of An. sinensis is expected to decline by 5.59%, while An. lesteri's suitability is projected to increase by 61.32%.
Our findings suggest An. lesteri is more resilient to climate change than An. sinensis, with a greater potential for northern expansion. The complex interplay of environmental factors underscores the need for integrated vector management strategies. Adopting a One Health framework - recognizing the interconnected health of humans, animals, and ecosystems - is essential for maintaining China's malaria-free status and preventing the re-establishment of malaria transmission. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.
由按蚊传播的疟疾仍然是全球主要的健康威胁。虽然中国在2021年获得了无疟疾认证，但该国仍易受输入性病例的影响，气候变化和人类活动加剧了这一风险。准确预测疟疾媒介的分布对于有效预防和管理至关重要。
我们采用贝叶斯加法回归树（BART）模型，结合近期出现数据以及气候、土壤、人类活动和植被变量，评估中华按蚊和雷氏按蚊在中国的当前分布。该模型预测了2041 - 2060年、2061 - 2080年和2081 - 2100年三个共享社会经济路径（SSP126、SSP245、SSP585）下的未来分布模式。中华按蚊目前在中国南部、东部和中部广泛分布，主要受人类足迹和最干燥月份降水量的影响。雷氏按蚊更局限于南部和中部地区，主要受归一化植被指数（NDVI）和人类足迹的影响。在未来气候情景下，两种按蚊预计都将向北迁移。到2081 - 2100年，在高排放的SSP585情景下，中华按蚊的潜在适宜性预计将下降5.59%，而雷氏按蚊的适宜性预计将增加61.32%。
我们的研究结果表明，雷氏按蚊比中华按蚊对气候变化更具弹性，向北扩张的潜力更大。环境因素的复杂相互作用凸显了综合媒介管理策略的必要性。采用“同一个健康”框架——认识到人类、动物和生态系统健康的相互联系——对于维持中国的无疟疾状态和防止疟疾传播的重新建立至关重要。©2025化学工业协会。
