Demir Muhammed Sungur, Muratoglu Abdullah, Kartal Veysi, Nas Hüsamettin
Civil Engineering Department, Batman University, 72100, Türkiye.
Civil Engineering Department, Batman University, 72100, Türkiye.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Aug;390:126310. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126310. Epub 2025 Jun 25.
Climate change intensifies pressures on agricultural water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the interplay between climate variability and agricultural water footprint (WF) dynamics in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019, integrating trend analyses of WF components, virtual water content (VWC), and climate parameters. We assessed temporal trends and correlations using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis, focusing on 11 major crops. While some crops, like alfalfa, showed decreased yields and increased VWC, key crops (maize, wheat, cotton) exhibited substantial yield improvements, with some showing VWC reductions of up to 46 %. A key finding is that socio-economic and technological advancements have offset the negative effects of rising temperatures and declining relative humidity on evapotranspiration, leading to an overall reduction in the total agricultural water footprint. However, blue WF concurrently increased, signaling a growing reliance on irrigation. Climate correlations revealed distinct seasonal influences: June-July precipitation was inversely correlated with blue WF (r = -0.531), while spring (March-May) rainfall positively influenced green WF (r = 0.412). The observed decoupling of agricultural productivity growth from total WF reduction highlights the importance of technological advancements and optimized water use. However, the rising blue-to-green water ratio underscores sustainability risks in groundwater-dependent systems. These findings advocate for crop-specific adaptive strategies and integrated policies to reconcile agricultural productivity with water resource resilience under climate change. This study provides a framework for guiding sustainable water management in water-stressed regions facing climatic uncertainty.
气候变化加剧了对农业水资源的压力，特别是在干旱和半干旱地区。本研究评估了1990年至2019年土耳其气候变异性与农业水足迹（WF）动态之间的相互作用，整合了WF组成部分、虚拟水含量（VWC）和气候参数的趋势分析。我们使用曼-肯德尔检验、森斜率估计器和创新趋势分析评估了时间趋势和相关性，重点关注11种主要作物。虽然一些作物，如苜蓿，产量下降且VWC增加，但关键作物（玉米、小麦、棉花）产量有显著提高，一些作物的VWC降幅高达46%。一个关键发现是，社会经济和技术进步抵消了气温上升和相对湿度下降对蒸散的负面影响，导致农业总水足迹总体减少。然而，蓝色水足迹同时增加，这表明对灌溉的依赖在增加。气候相关性揭示了明显的季节性影响：6月至7月的降水量与蓝色水足迹呈负相关（r = -0.531），而春季（3月至5月）的降雨对绿色水足迹有积极影响（r = 0.412）。观察到的农业生产率增长与总水足迹减少的脱钩凸显了技术进步和优化用水的重要性。然而，蓝色与绿色水比例的上升凸显了依赖地下水系统的可持续性风险。这些发现倡导针对特定作物的适应策略和综合政策，以在气候变化下使农业生产力与水资源恢复力相协调。本研究为面临气候不确定性的水资源紧张地区指导可持续水资源管理提供了一个框架。
