Impact of future climate trend and fluctuation on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain and adaptation strategies.

Research on the impacts of climate change on crop yield is crucial for improving agricultural management practices and enhancing climate adaptability. Although previous studies have explored the effects of climate trends and fluctuations on wheat yield, their combined impacts under future climate scenarios in the North China Plain (NCP) remain insufficiently understood. This study employs the DSSAT model to analyze the impacts of future climate trends and fluctuations on winter wheat yield. The results indicate that in the 2030s, the benefits of increased precipitation outweighed the losses from rising temperatures, leading to a 1.5% increase in winter wheat yield in the NCP. However, by the 2080s, continuous temperature rise dominated yield reduction, resulting in a 13.4% decline, which exceeded the compensatory capacity of increased precipitation. Irrigated wheat was primarily influenced by temperature trends, while rainfed systems were more sensitive to precipitation fluctuations. Delaying the planting date and increasing field fertility could mitigate 6-7.5% of the potential losses caused by rising temperatures, whereas increasing irrigation had limited mitigation effects (only improving yield by 3%). This study quantifies the climate impact benefits on winter wheat in the NCP and highlights the need for prioritizing heat-tolerant varieties and optimizing sowing and fertilization practices over water-intensive adaptation strategies. The findings provide decision-making support for ensuring food security under a warming climate.