Spatio-temporal synergies of digital economy and green finance: Catalyzing green low-carbon transition in the Yangtze River Delta Region.

Green low-carbon development is essential to address global warming and resource crises, with the integration of digital economy and green finance (IDEGF) offering transformative potential. This study first examines the spatio-temporal co-evolution of IDEGF and green low-carbon transition (GLCT) across 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region using the panel grey correlation and bivariate spatial association models. It then applies the spatial simultaneous equation model to explore the interactive feedback effects between IDEGF and GLCT, and analyzes the heterogeneous impact of IDEGF on GLCT using the geographic weighted random forest (GWRF) model. Key findings include: (1) IDEGF steadily improved, with reduced disparities and a shift from unipolar to multipolar differentiation. Higher IDEGF levels were observed in developed cities, while lower levels were prevalent in less developed regions. (2) Temporal positive V-shaped correlations emerged between IDEGF and GLCT. Most cities in the delta region exhibited positive correlations, with stronger correlation intensity in the core developed cities and weaker correlation intensity in the peripheral, less developed cities. (3) Strong spatio-temporal cohesion and flow inertia were observed, with developed cities predominantly exhibiting High-High clusters, whereas less developed cities tended to form Low-Low clustering modes. (4) IDEGF exhibited significant positive direct and spatial spillover effects on GLCT, with its influence surpassing the isolated impacts of the digital economy or green fiance. Moreover, GLCT demonstrated significant positive direct and spillover feedback effects on IDEGF. (5) IDEGF indirectly contributed to GLCT by enhancing urban innovation vitality, industrial green factor productivity, and corporate ESG performance, with a stronger promotive effect in relatively developed cities and a weaker impact in less developed regions. These findings highlight the need for regional strategies, cross-regional collaboration, and policy innovation to position the YRD as a leading model for sustainable, low-carbon development.