Lekodeba Nkgomeleng A, Rosen Sydney, Phiri Bevis, Masuku Sithabiso D, Govathson Caroline, Kamanga Aniset, Haimbe Prudence, Shakwelele Hilda, Mwansa Muya, Lumano-Mulenga Priscilla, Huber Amy N, Pascoe Sophie J S, Jamieson Lise, Nichols Brooke E
Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
J Int AIDS Soc. 2025 Jul;28(7):e70003. doi: 10.1002/jia2.70003.
INTRODUCTION: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models for antiretroviral treatment (ART) have been scaled up in many settings in sub-Saharan Africa to improve client-centred care and increase service delivery efficiency. However, given the multitude of models of care currently available, identifying cost-effective combinations of DSD models that maximize benefits and minimize costs remains critical for guiding their expansion. METHODS: We developed an Excel-based mathematical model using retrospective retention and viral suppression data from a national cohort of ART clients (≥15 years) in Zambia between January 2018 and March 2022 stratified by age, sex, setting (urban/rural) and model of ART delivery. Outcomes (viral suppression and retention in care), provider costs and costs to clients were estimated from the cohort and published data. The base case reflects the outcomes observed in 2022 for all DSD models for each population sub-group. For different combinations of nine DSD models and over 1-year time horizon from the provider perspective, we evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per additional client virally suppressed compared to the 2022 base case. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted on key input parameters. RESULTS: Among 125 scenarios evaluated, six were on the cost-effectiveness frontier: (1) 6-month dispensing (6MMD)-only; (2) 6MMD and adherence groups (AGs); (3) AGs-only; (4) fast track refills (FTRs) and AGs; (5) FTRs-only; and 6) AGs and home ART delivery. 6MMD-only was cost-saving compared to the base case, increasing retention by 1.2% (95% CI: 0.7-1.8), viral suppression by 1.6% (95% CI: 1.0-2.7) and reducing client costs by 12.0% (95% CI: 10.8-12.4). The next cost-effective scenarios, 6MMD + AGs and AGs-only, cost $245 per additional person virally suppressed, increased viral suppression by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.2-3.3) and 4.0% (95% CI: 3.5-4.0) and increased client costs by 20.1% (95% CI: 9.5-28.1) and 52.3% (95% CI: 29.868.7), respectively. ART cost and laboratory test costs were the most influential parameters on provider costs and the ICERs. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical modelling using existing data can identify cost-effective DSD model mixes while ensuring all client sub-populations are considered. In Zambia, scaling up 6MMD to all eligible clients is likely cost-saving, with further health gains achievable by targeting sub-populations with selected DSD models.
引言:撒哈拉以南非洲的许多地区都扩大了抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)的差异化服务提供(DSD)模式,以改善以客户为中心的护理并提高服务提供效率。然而,鉴于目前有多种护理模式,确定能使效益最大化和成本最小化的具有成本效益的DSD模式组合对于指导其扩展仍然至关重要。 方法:我们使用2018年1月至2022年3月赞比亚全国ART客户队列(≥15岁)的回顾性留存和病毒抑制数据,开发了一个基于Excel的数学模型,按年龄、性别、地点(城市/农村)和ART提供模式进行分层。从队列和已发表数据中估计了结果(病毒抑制和护理留存率)、提供者成本和客户成本。基础病例反映了2022年每个亚人群组所有DSD模式中观察到的结果。从提供者角度出发,对于九种DSD模式的不同组合以及超过1年的时间范围,我们评估了与2022年基础病例相比,每新增一名病毒得到抑制的客户的增量成本效益比(ICER)。对关键输入参数进行了确定性敏感性分析。 结果:在评估的125种方案中,有六种处于成本效益前沿:(1)仅6个月配药(6MMD);(2)6MMD和依从性小组(AGs);(3)仅AGs;(4)快速补充(FTRs)和AGs;(5)仅FTRs;以及(6)AGs和家庭ART送药。与基础病例相比,仅6MMD节省了成本,留存率提高了1.2%(95%置信区间:0.7 - 1.8),病毒抑制率提高了1.6%(95%置信区间:1.0 - 2.7),客户成本降低了12.0%(95%置信区间:10.8 - 12.4)。接下来具有成本效益的方案,即6MMD + AGs和仅AGs,每新增一名病毒得到抑制的人成本为245美元,病毒抑制率分别提高了2.8%(95%置信区间:2.2 - 3.3)和4.0%(95%置信区间:3.5 - 4.0),客户成本分别增加了20.1%(95%置信区间:9.5 - 28.1)和52.3%(95%置信区间:29.8 - 68.7)。ART成本和实验室检测成本是对提供者成本和ICERs影响最大的参数。 结论:使用现有数据进行数学建模可以确定具有成本效益的DSD模式组合,同时确保考虑所有客户亚人群体。在赞比亚,将6MMD扩大到所有符合条件的客户可能会节省成本,通过针对特定亚人群体采用选定的DSD模式可进一步实现健康效益提升。
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