Kettle Helen, Coston Duncan J, White Sacha, Pope Tom W, Roberts Joe M, Ewing David
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FD, UK.
RSK ADAS Ltd, Battle Gate Rd, Boxworth, CB23 4NN, Cambridgeshire, UK.
J Theor Biol. 2025 Sep 7;612:112185. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112185. Epub 2025 Jun 27.
The cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB) is an economically important pest of oilseed rape crops that has increased in importance over recent years. Here we present the first attempt at a process-based model of this species using delay-differential equations (implemented in the R package stagePop) to simulate the abundance of each stage of the life cycle. We split the life cycle into 6 distinct stages: eggs, larvae, pupae-diapause (pupae, pre-aestivation adults and aestivating adults), pre-oviposition adults, reproductive adults and non-reproductive adults (past reproductive age), with temperature-dependent stage durations and death rates. We use adult trap data to inform on the initial conditions for the model and drive the model with a generic air temperature time series. To validate our model we compare the results with expected timings based on the scientific literature and field data on larval abundance. We use the model to investigate the effects of increasing the yearly average air temperature, and the effects of unusually warm seasons on CSFB population seasonal abundance patterns. Due to a lack of data there are key processes (e.g. temperature dependence of larval development) and parameter values that are uncertain. However, we believe the model, and its future iterations as more data are obtained, has the potential to be used as part of a decision support system for farmers and advisors, enabling more informed decisions on drilling and IPM strategies based on the within season weather conditions.
甘蓝茎跳甲是油菜作物的一种具有重要经济意义的害虫，近年来其重要性不断增加。在此，我们首次尝试使用延迟微分方程（在R包stagePop中实现）构建基于过程的该物种模型，以模拟其生命周期各阶段的数量。我们将生命周期分为6个不同阶段：卵、幼虫、滞育蛹期（蛹、夏眠前成虫和夏眠成虫）、产卵前成虫、繁殖期成虫和非繁殖期成虫（超过繁殖年龄），各阶段持续时间和死亡率均取决于温度。我们利用成虫诱捕数据确定模型的初始条件，并使用通用的气温时间序列驱动模型。为验证我们的模型，我们将结果与基于科学文献和幼虫数量的田间数据得出的预期时间进行比较。我们使用该模型研究年平均气温升高的影响，以及异常温暖季节对甘蓝茎跳甲种群季节性数量模式的影响。由于缺乏数据，存在一些关键过程（例如幼虫发育对温度的依赖性）和参数值尚不确定。然而，我们相信随着获取更多数据，该模型及其未来的迭代版本有潜力作为农民和顾问决策支持系统的一部分，使他们能够根据季节内天气状况，就播种和综合虫害管理策略做出更明智的决策。
