Wang Shuang, Zhao Xiao, Zhou Sheng-Hui
College of Geographical Science, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Region, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Jun 8;46(6):3830-3845. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202405168.
Land use/cover change （LUCC） is an important factor affecting regional carbon storage. It is of great significance to study the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage for optimizing land management and improving ecological environment. The land use status of Henan Province has changed significantly in recent years. Based on land cover data and combined with InVEST and PLUS model， this study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of LUCC in Henan Province from 2005 to 2020， as well as the development trend of LUCC and carbon storage under the natural development scenario （Q1）， ecological protection scenario （Q2）， and urban development scenario （Q3）. The results show that： ① The total carbon storage of Henan Province decreased 87.47×10 t from 2005 to 2020， and the carbon storage of different land use types was as follows： cropland > forest > grassland > urban area > water area > unused land， which was consistent with the size of land types. ② In the future three scenarios， the area of six land use types in Henan Province was as follows： cropland > forest > urban area > water area > grassland > unused land. The construction land area increased obviously in Q1 and Q3 compared with that in Q2， the grassland increased obviously in Q2 compared with that in Q1 and Q3， and the increase mainly occurred in the central and northern parts of Henan Province. ③ The carbon storage under three scenarios in Henan Province showed a trend of "Q1 decreasing- Q2 increasing- Q3 decreasing" in 2035， indicating that the regional carbon storage will decrease by 12.80×10 t compared with that in 2020 under the condition of good ecological environment. Furthermore， the larger carbon storage was distributed in the western， northern， and southern provincial boundaries of Henan Province. There was a good consistency between LUCC and carbon storage change in Henan Province. Therefore， optimizing the spatial distribution of land use and formulating reasonable policies to protect grassland and forest will help to improve regional carbon reserves. This study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to further implement sustainable development and achieve the goal of "double carbon".
土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）是影响区域碳储量的重要因素。研究LUCC与碳储量之间的关系对于优化土地管理和改善生态环境具有重要意义。近年来，河南省的土地利用状况发生了显著变化。基于土地覆盖数据，并结合InVEST和PLUS模型，本研究分析了2005年至2020年河南省LUCC的时空演变，以及自然发展情景（Q1）、生态保护情景（Q2）和城市发展情景（Q3）下LUCC和碳储量的发展趋势。结果表明：①2005年至2020年，河南省总碳储量减少了87.47×10 t，不同土地利用类型的碳储量排序为：耕地＞森林＞草地＞城区＞水域＞未利用地，这与土地类型面积大小一致。②在未来三种情景下，河南省六种土地利用类型的面积排序为：耕地＞森林＞城区＞水域＞草地＞未利用地。与Q2相比，Q1和Q3情景下建设用地面积明显增加，Q2情景下草地面积比Q1和Q3情景下明显增加，且增加主要发生在河南省中部和北部地区。③2035年河南省三种情景下的碳储量呈现“Q1减少-Q2增加-Q3减少”的趋势，表明在生态环境良好的条件下，区域碳储量将比2020年减少12.80×10 t。此外，较大的碳储量分布在河南省西部、北部和南部边界。河南省LUCC与碳储量变化之间具有良好的一致性。因此，优化土地利用空间布局，制定合理政策保护草地和森林，将有助于提高区域碳储量。本研究可为河南省进一步实施可持续发展、实现“双碳”目标提供科学参考。
