Xiao Qiang-Song, Wang Yu-Zhi
School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Jun 8;46(6):3632-3644. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406053.
As an important cornerstone of grain production, the fluctuation of the quantity and quality of cultivated land resources is directly related to the stability of grain production, which in turn affects the effective supply of grain and food security. In recent years, in the face of the pressure of food demand caused by population growth, China has promoted cultivated land protection as a basic national policy and formulated and implemented a series of strategies for cultivated land protection and balanced control. Because of this, as the world's largest developing country, China has successfully fed 22 % of the world's population with only approximately 9 % of the world's arable land resources. However, factors such as urban construction land expansion, land degradation, and climate change still pose severe challenges to agricultural production. Henan Province, as the core area of national grain production, or 'China granary', plays an important role. In order to ensure national food security, Henan Province has put forward the agricultural space development strategy of implementing the spatial layout of the national agricultural industry, improving the scale and intensive level of grain production, and guiding the development of agricultural modernization. At the specific implementation level, it is key to formulate relevant cultivated land zoning control strategies according to local conditions. However, due to the lack of research on the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land productivity, it is still impossible to get rid of the reality of taking administrative divisions as the control unit. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of cultivated land use in Henan Province and the influencing factors of cultivated land productivity changes, so as to scientifically formulate the control strategy of cultivated land zoning, to implement the strategic pattern of national main functional areas, to keep the bottom line of land space security, and to ensure national food security. Based on this, this study constructs the transfer matrix of cultivated land use based on China's annual land cover data set and introduces the landscape pattern index of cultivated land to evaluate the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of cultivated land space in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020, and then the reasons for its change were analyzed. At the same time, using the net primary production (NPP) data set, Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Hurst index analysis, coefficient of variation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and partial correlation coefficient were used to explore the evolution of cultivated land productivity in Henan Province and quantify the impact of climate factors and human activities on cultivated land productivity. The results show that: ① Based on the expansion of urban construction land combined with the impact of cultivated land regulation policies and major projects, the area of cultivated land transferred out during the study period was much larger than the area of cultivated land transferred in, and the cultivated land was mainly transferred out for construction land, and the cultivated land in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Nanyang Basin, as the main grain producing areas in Henan Province, fluctuated greatly. ② During the study period, the degree of fragmentation of the transferred cultivated land increased significantly. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the transferred-in cultivated land was more fragmented than the transferred-out cultivated land, showing the spatial variation characteristics of concentrated transfer-out and close to construction land and sporadic transfer-in. ③ The interannual distribution of cultivated land NPP showed significant differences, namely, high in the south and low in the north. The interannual variation trend gradually increased (4.23 g·m·a, calculated by C, the same below), and the annual average value was between 78.16 and 1 080.58 g·m·a. ④ During the study period, 96.61 % of the cultivated land NPP showed an increasing trend, but the different growth rates showed obvious spatial heterogeneity in the study area, and the future growth may slow down or degrade. ⑤ The contribution of solar radiation to the change of NPP in cultivated land was more significant in climate factors. On the whole, human activities promoted the accumulation of NPP in cultivated land in the study area, but there were differences in space. The area of NPP reduction in cultivated land accounted for 1.76% and was relatively concentrated, mainly due to the expansion of urban construction space dominated by human activities. At the same time, the study found that the marginal area of cultivated land NPP reduction was affected by climate but showed an increasing trend.
作为粮食生产的重要基石,耕地资源数量与质量的波动直接关系到粮食生产的稳定性,进而影响粮食的有效供给和粮食安全。近年来,面对人口增长带来的粮食需求压力,中国将耕地保护提升为一项基本国策,并制定实施了一系列耕地保护与平衡管控战略。正因如此,作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国仅用约9%的世界耕地资源就成功养活了22%的世界人口。然而,城市建设用地扩张、土地退化和气候变化等因素仍给农业生产带来严峻挑战。河南省作为国家粮食生产的核心区域,即“中国粮仓”,发挥着重要作用。为确保国家粮食安全,河南省提出了实施国家农业产业空间布局、提高粮食生产规模和集约化水平、引导农业现代化发展的农业空间发展战略。在具体实施层面,因地制宜制定相关耕地分区管控战略是关键。然而,由于缺乏对耕地生产力时空演变的研究,目前仍无法摆脱以行政区划为管控单元的现实。因此,探究河南省耕地利用的时空分异特征及耕地生产力变化的影响因素,对于科学制定耕地分区管控战略、落实国家主体功能区战略格局、守住土地空间安全底线、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于此,本研究基于中国年度土地覆盖数据集构建耕地利用转移矩阵,并引入耕地景观格局指数,对2000—2020年河南省耕地空间的时空分异特征进行评价,进而分析其变化原因。同时,利用净初级生产力(NPP)数据集,采用Theil-Sen中位数+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Hurst指数分析、变异系数分析、偏相关分析和偏相关系数,探究河南省耕地生产力的演变规律,并量化气候因素和人类活动对耕地生产力的影响。结果表明:①基于城市建设用地扩张并结合耕地调控政策和重大项目的影响,研究期内耕地转出面积远大于转入面积,耕地主要转出用于建设用地,河南省主要粮食产区黄淮海平原和南阳盆地的耕地波动较大。②研究期内,转出耕地的破碎化程度显著增加。从空间分布来看,转入耕地比转出耕地更加破碎,呈现出集中转出且靠近建设用地、零星转入的空间分异特征。③耕地NPP的年际分布存在显著差异,即南高北低。年际变化趋势呈逐渐增加态势(按C计算为4.23 g·m·a,下同),年均值在78.16~1 080.58 g·m·a之间。④研究期内,96.61%的耕地NPP呈增加趋势,但不同增长率在研究区域呈现出明显的空间异质性,未来增长可能放缓或退化。⑤在气候因素中,太阳辐射对耕地NPP变化的贡献更为显著。总体而言,人类活动促进了研究区域耕地NPP的积累,但存在空间差异。耕地NPP减少的区域占1.76%,且相对集中,主要是由于以人类活动为主导的城市建设空间扩张。同时,研究发现耕地NPP减少的边缘区域受气候影响但呈增加趋势。