Wang Jun-Li, Chen Ya-Li, Guan Cui-Ping, Yu Kan, Wang Mao-Shui
Department of Lab Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, China.
Guangxi Engineering Research Center for Precise Genetic Testing of Long-Dwelling Nationalities, Guangxi, China.
Front Microbiol. 2025 Jun 13;16:1591792. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2025.1591792. eCollection 2025.
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, necessitating effective measures to control the epidemic. Understanding the evolution of () through molecular clock analysis is crucial for tracing outbreaks, managing transmission, and ultimately improving TB management in practice.
A total of 27 studies were included for analysis. The pooled mutation rate was estimated at 0.63 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51-0.75; 95% predictive interval (PI): 0.04-1.22], significant heterogeneity (I = 92.7%, < 0.001) was observed. Clinical strains had a mutation rate of 0.55 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.45-0.65; 95% PI: 0.12-0.98), while model strains showed a higher rate of 1.14 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.68-1.60; 95% PI: -0.22-2.50; Meta-regression analysis, = 0.006). Mutation rates did not significantly differ between transmission events and reactivation or single episodes ( = 0.497).
The mutation rate of clinical strains is below 1 SNP per genome per year, indicating evolutionary stability in clinical settings. This finding is important for TB outbreak reconstructions and public health strategies. Future research should refine subgroup analyses based on infection characteristics for more precise molecular clock estimates.
PROSPERO, identifier CRD42024595161.
结核病仍然是全球重大的公共卫生问题，需要采取有效措施来控制疫情。通过分子钟分析了解（）的演变对于追踪疫情暴发、管理传播以及最终改善结核病的实际管理至关重要。
共纳入27项研究进行分析。估计每年每个基因组的合并突变率为0.63个单核苷酸多态性（SNP）[95%置信区间（CI）：0.51 - 0.75；95%预测区间（PI）：0.04 - 1.22]，观察到显著的异质性（I² = 92.7%，P < 0.001）。临床菌株的突变率为每年0.55个SNP（95% CI：0.45 - 0.65；95% PI：0.12 - 0.98），而模型菌株的突变率较高，为每年1.14个SNP（95% CI：0.68 - 1.60；95% PI： - 0.22 - 2.50；Meta回归分析，P = 0.006）。传播事件与再激活或单次发作之间的突变率无显著差异（P = 0.497）。
临床（）菌株的突变率低于每年每个基因组1个SNP，表明临床环境中的进化稳定性。这一发现对于结核病疫情暴发的重建和公共卫生策略很重要。未来的研究应根据感染特征完善亚组分析，以获得更精确的分子钟估计。
PROSPERO，标识符CRD42024595161。
