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2008 - 2022年埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚地区选定区域牛群结节性皮肤病暴发的时空聚类分析及预测

Spatiotemporal cluster analysis and predicting lumpy skin disease outbreaks in cattle in selected zones of Oromia region, Ethiopia from 2008-2022.

作者信息

Demisie Emishaw, Shimelis Shihun, Abdi Michael, Wubaye Ambachew Motbaynor, Gezahegn Elias, Mengistie Biniam, Gemechu Tamirat, Ambaw Yihenew Getahun, Kallu Simegnew Adugna

机构信息

Chole District Agriculture Office, Arsi Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

College of Veterinary Medicine, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Vet Anim Sci. 2025 Jun 6;29:100469. doi: 10.1016/j.vas.2025.100469. eCollection 2025 Sep.

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral infection that affects cattle, causing significant economic loss and posing a threat to food security. This is a study in the selected zones of Oromia Region, Ethiopia, spanning 15 years (2008-2022), aimed to identify spatiotemporal distribution, cluster of LSD outbreaks, and to project potential future outbreaks for the years from 2023-2027. The findings revealed 457 outbreaks, 50,025 recorded cases with 879 fatalities. The study analyzed LSD outbreak spatial cluster (Moran , Getis Ord Gi and ST-model), time series data using classical additive and STL decomposition, and four forecasting models (ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, and SL+random walk) were used. Seven hotspots emerged predominantly in the northwestern and eastern segments of the Arsi zone. The study further pinpointed two spatial and twelve spatiotemporal clusters, including all distinct temporal clusters between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2009, characterized by a relative risk (RR) of 2.68, a log likelihood ratio (LLR) of 16.23, and a -value of 0.001. Seasonal trends indicate that LSD peaks during the wet months from September to December and is low in cold dry period from March to May. Among the forecasting methodologies evaluated, the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 2, 3) [12] model was best fit its counterparts, as reflected by the lowest RMSE, MA, and MASE, suggesting enhanced forecast accuracy for LSD outbreaks from 2023 to 2027. These findings provided valuable insights into the dynamics of the disease and can inform the development of effective LSD control and prevention strategies in the study zones.

摘要

结节性皮肤病(LSD)是一种影响牛群的病毒感染病,会造成重大经济损失并对粮食安全构成威胁。这是一项在埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚地区选定区域开展的为期15年(2008 - 2022年)的研究,旨在确定LSD疫情的时空分布、聚集情况,并预测2023 - 2027年未来可能出现的疫情。研究结果显示共有457次疫情爆发,记录病例达50,025例,其中879例死亡。该研究分析了LSD疫情的空间聚集情况(莫兰指数、Getis-Ord Gi指数和时空模型),使用经典加法和STL分解对时间序列数据进行分析,并运用了四种预测模型(ARIMA、SARIMA、ETS和SL + 随机游走)。主要在阿尔西地区的西北部和东部出现了七个热点地区。该研究进一步确定了两个空间聚集区和十二个时空聚集区,包括2009年1月1日至2009年12月31日期间所有不同的时间聚集区,其相对风险(RR)为2.68,对数似然比(LLR)为16.23,p值为0.001。季节性趋势表明,LSD在9月至12月的雨季达到高峰,在3月至5月的寒冷干燥期处于低发状态。在所评估的预测方法中,SARIMA(1, 1, 1)(0, 2, 3)[12]模型在同类模型中拟合效果最佳,其均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MA)和平均绝对标度误差(MASE)最低,这表明该模型对2023年至2027年LSD疫情的预测准确性更高。这些研究结果为该疾病的动态变化提供了有价值的见解,并可为研究区域制定有效的LSD控制和预防策略提供参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2f97/12205835/b46e77a92ea8/gr1.jpg

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