Rosenfield P L, Smith R A, Wolman M G
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1977 May;26(3):505-16. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1977.26.505.
Development of a model to predict the impact of water resource projects on transmission of schistosomiasis is described and verified with data from 54 villages in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Changes in disease prevalence following construction of an irrigation project are related to the linear extent of snail habitats and size of the infected human population. The model is used to compare the costs and effectiveness of alternative disease control measures. Results indicate that a combined controls program is most cost-effective but further work is needed to determine the optimal combination of controls.
本文描述了一个预测水资源项目对血吸虫病传播影响的模型，并利用伊朗胡齐斯坦省54个村庄的数据进行了验证。灌溉项目建设后疾病流行率的变化与钉螺栖息地的线性范围和受感染人群的规模有关。该模型用于比较替代疾病控制措施的成本和效果。结果表明，综合控制方案最具成本效益，但还需要进一步开展工作以确定控制措施的最佳组合。
