Estimating Economic Losses in Commercial Chicken Farms During COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Lessons Learned for Future Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on various economic sectors, including poultry production and trading in Bangladesh. We aimed to estimate the total economic losses and determine the causes behind these losses in commercial chicken farms during the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. We conducted a cross-sectional study using both qualitative and quantitative approaches across six districts from September to December 2021. The data collection involved semi-structured questionnaire interviews with 220 commercial poultry farmers and conducting in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 20 farm owners. We employed stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal model for forecasting the average losses per farm caused by COVID-19. This model was built using the average reduced egg price, reduced bird price, and increased feed price of each individual farm. These averages were then used to predict the average farm loss, which was subsequently extrapolated to determine the total national loss. We estimated that the national loss in the small and medium-scale poultry sector during the COVID-19 lockdown amounted to 98.5 million USD, with the model predicting an average economic loss of $1407.6 per commercial farm. The majority (90%) of farmers experienced losses during this period. Majority of broiler (83.54%) and layer (80.65%) farmers, and approximately half of the Sonali farmers (54.10%) had to change their trading patterns or supply chains. After the pandemic period, about 33.33% of broilers, 31.03% of layer, and 45.90% of Sonali farmers managed to recover their losses. The poultry farmers encountered numerous challenges that impeded their ability to sell birds. These challenges resulted from transportation restrictions, widespread rumors leading to a sharp decline in demand, and significant losses from reduced egg and live bird prices. Consequently, some farmers were forced to close their farms, while others adapted by changing their trading patterns. To cope with the financial strain, some farmers resorted to obtaining loans from financial organizations, or seeking help from relatives, and a fortunate few received incentives from the government. Farmers suggested price monitoring, trainings, low-interest loans, and government incentives. Additionally, the formation of farmer's associations, exempting poultry from restrictions and lockdown, raising mass awareness, and including farmers' representatives in pandemic preparedness teams are deemed essential measures to safeguard the economic interests in any future pandemic crises. The marginal and small-scale poultry sectors in Bangladesh were severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown, with many farmers still struggling in recuperating their financial losses. It is imperative for the government to aids these farmers to support their contributions to protein supply and poverty alleviation in the community.